politics
Update :Asiwaju Tinubu’s favour to win 2023 presidential poll, Says Fitch
Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been tipped to win Nigeria’s 2023 election.
The prediction was contained in a report by Fitch, a leading global rating company in the world.
Fitch in the report maintained that “Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”
The report also disclosed that earlier surveys showing that Obi was ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.
The report stated further that since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.
“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.
“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.
“Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.”
Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.
It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states while retaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the Southsouth and Southeast – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.
“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.”
politics
APC PCC Restructures Media and Communications Framework Ahead of 2027 Elections, Says Gbajabiamila
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To ensure more cohesive, disciplined, and effective public engagement, the All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Council has made some changes to the structure of the Directorate of Media and Strategic Communications.
The Council has approved that only the campaign’s Director-General, Senator Abdulaziz Yari; the Minister of Solid Minerals, Dele Alake, as official Spokesperson; and the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Alhaji Mohammed Idris, will speak on behalf of the Council.
All previously announced persons in this capacity shall henceforth dissolve into the Directorate of Media and Strategic Communications as members.
Radio and TV stations are hereby advised to take note of these changes and act accordingly. The campaign will delegate appropriate person(s) for appearances where and when necessary.
politics
Ughulu: Campaigns OK Movement’s Position on Independence Remains Unchanged Amid NDC Crisis
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The OK (Obi/Kwankwaso) Movement has declared that it will maintain its independent identity while mobilising support for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and its candidates ahead of the 2027 general election. NigerianNews Updates
Movement’s leader John Ughulu said the group remained committed to its original mission of securing the election of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and erstwhile Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Speaking in an interview, Ughulu dismissed suggestions that the movement’s decision to campaign independently would undermine its support for the NDC, insisting that the focus should be on achieving a common political objective.
“What difference does it make when we campaign on parallel lines? The most important thing is that we have one objective,” he said.
Asked whether the movement had decided to retain its independent status rather than formally integrate into the NDC campaign structure, Ughulu said its position had not changed.
“We have always been independent, and there is nothing wrong in that. We are campaigning for NDC party’s candidates. I will appreciate we leave it like that,” he added.
He urged members and supporters to remain guided by the principles upon which the movement was established, stressing that its political mission remained unchanged.
“The members of the OK Movement work on the principles upon which we formed the movement. The mission to bring His Excellency Peter Obi and His Excellency Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is sacrosanct,” Ughulu said.
His remarks underscore the movement’s intention to retain its organisational independence while supporting the NDC’s electoral ambitions, particularly its presidential candidate, Obi, in the 2027 contest.
The disagreement between the NDC and the OK Movement followed the movement’s announcement of a 59-member Presidential Campaign Council to mobilise support for the party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and his running mate, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, ahead of the 2027 general election.
The NDC leadership rejected the arrangement, insisting that only the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) had the authority to constitute and announce its official campaign council.
The party also maintained that support groups must operate within its recognised organisational framework rather than establish parallel structures.
NDC National Leader Senator Seriake Dickson reinforced this position, arguing that political movements supporting the party’s candidates should complement, not compete with the party’s machinery.
The OK Movement, however, resisted the party’s position, insisting that its support for the NDC candidates should not be interpreted as an obligation to surrender its independently established structures.
Ughulu maintained that the movement had its own leadership, membership and organisational framework, which it was unwilling to dissolve or merge into the party.
The disagreement escalated after the NDC disowned the movement’s campaign council and referred Ughulu to its disciplinary organ over alleged disregard for party authority.
Despite the controversy, the movement has maintained that it will continue to mobilise support for Obi and other NDC candidates while retaining its independent identity.
politics
Breaking : Imo West Senatorial Race: Court Orders INEC to Recognise Okorocha, Bars Uzodimma from Claiming APC Ticket
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A court has reportedly ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to publish the name of former Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, as the winner of the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial primary for Imo West Senatorial District.
The court also reportedly directed Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, to stop presenting himself as the APC candidate for the Imo West Senatorial District seat.
The ruling concerns the dispute over the APC senatorial ticket for Imo West, with the court’s directives addressing the recognition of the party’s candidate and the publication of the relevant details by INEC.
The development could have significant implications for the political contest in Imo West, depending on the terms of the judgment and any subsequent legal proceedings.
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