politics
Update :Asiwaju Tinubu’s favour to win 2023 presidential poll, Says Fitch
Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been tipped to win Nigeria’s 2023 election.
The prediction was contained in a report by Fitch, a leading global rating company in the world.
Fitch in the report maintained that “Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”
The report also disclosed that earlier surveys showing that Obi was ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online.
The report stated further that since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the internet (World Bank, 2020), “we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.
“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.
“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.
“Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.”
Fitch added that Peter Obi is unlikely to win the presidential election.
It said, “While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third-party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5% of votes in Nigeria. However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following, we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates.
“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states while retaining large majorities in the Southsouth and Southeast.
“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the Southsouth and Southeast – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.
“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.”
politics
Breaking : Accord Party Faces Internal Crisis in Osun as Bamigbola Emerges for 2026 After Adeleke
A faction of the Accord Party has produced Clement Bamigbola as its governorship candidate for the 2026 Osun State election, just four days after the emergence of Governor Ademola Adeleke as the party’s flagbearer.
Newsthumb recalls that Adeleke had emerged on Wednesday as the party’s candidate, being the sole aspirant in the exercise.
However, a faction of the party rejected his emergence, insisting that Barrister Maxwell Ngbudem is not the legally recognised national chairman of the Accord Party.
In a fresh development on Sunday, about 300 delegates of the Accord Party from across Osun State elected Bamigbola as the factional candidate during a primary held at Regina Suite, Osogbo.
Bamigbola emerged through a voice vote conducted by the delegates, after which the Chairman of the Primary Committee, Hon. Olufemi Ogundare, declared him the party’s candidate for the 2026 Osun State governorship election.
Following his declaration, Ogundare and other party leaders formally presented the party’s flag to Bamigbola ahead of the 2026 contest.
politics
2026: Tinubu Hosts Osun APC Aspirants in Aso Villa, Emphasizes Unity and Consensus Building
PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu has appealed to governorship aspirants of the All Progressives Congress, APC, in the 2026 election for unity and consensus-building ahead of the party’s primary on December 13.
The President made the appeal when he met with the aspirants at the State House, Abuja, on Monday night.
The Osun State governorship aspirants who attended the meeting with the President include former Deputy Governor Benedict Olugboyega Alabi, Dotun Babayemi, Akin Ogunbiyi, Senator Babajide Omoworare, Kunle Adegoke (SAN), Babatunde Hareter Oralusi, Mulikat Abiola Jimoh and Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji.
Also in attendance at the meeting were the National Chairman of the APC, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda; the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume; the Chairman of the Progressive Governors, Hope Uzodimma; and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola.
President Tinubu, who praised all the aspirants for their contributions to the APC in Osun State, urged them to close ranks and support the consensus candidate the party will present for the governorship election in the state. He also advised them to avoid the internal bickering and disunity that caused the party to lose the last election in the state to the Peoples Democratic Party.
While harping on the importance of party supremacy, President Tinubu charged the aspirants to allow it to prevail in choosing the flagbearer, noting that only the party can benefit from it when it wins elections.
“You all have a duty and obligation to the party by ensuring the candidate of our party wins the next election in Osun State. You must strengthen the bonds of unity, party supremacy and collective responsibility. I have absolute confidence in your ability to deliver victory to our party in Osun State. You have my support and that of the National leadership of APC to win the coming election,” President Tinubu assured.
At the end of the meeting, a joint statement was issued in which the aspirants and the leaders committed to support the candidate who would emerge at the primary.
Here is the statement signed by all the aspirants and the APC leaders: “We, the undersigned aspirants for the 2025 Osun State Governorship Election under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), having met and deliberated in the presence of His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, and the National Chairman of the APC, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, and in the spirit of unity, discipline, and loyalty to our great party, hereby declare as follows:
That we affirm and uphold the supremacy of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in guiding and determining the most appropriate process for selecting the party’s flag bearer for the 2025 Governorship Election in Osun State.
That we unanimously agree to abide by the party’s decision to nominate a consensus candidate for affirmation at the APC Primary Election scheduled for Saturday, 13th December 2025.
That we accept the outcome of the party-led nomination process in good faith, and pledge our total support to the candidate so nominated and affirmed.
That we commit ourselves to peace, unity, and cohesion within the APC, and pledge not to engage in any act, public or private, that may undermine the integrity of the process or the standing of the party.
That we will work collectively and individually to ensure the success of the APC at the polls and the consolidation of good governance in Osun State.
“We make this declaration voluntarily, in absolute loyalty to our great party, and in recognition of the guidance provided by Mr President and the National Chairman in the overriding interest of the progress and stability of Osun State”.
There was jubilation on Wednesday as Governor Ademola Adeleke emerged the Accord Party’s gubernatorial candidate for the 2026 Osun State governorship election.
Adeleke, who was the sole aspirant, secured 145 out of 150 delegate votes to clinch the party’s ticket.
The outcome of the primary election was announced by the Secretary of the Primary Committee, Abdulazeez Salaudeen.
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