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Taiwan in the Crossfire of History, Law, and Power: A Feature Analysis of Competing Claims and the One-China Question
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By Michael Olukayode
The status of Taiwan remains one of the most enduring and strategically sensitive disputes in modern international relations — a question where history, law, identity, and geopolitics collide without easy resolution. It is not merely a territorial disagreement between Beijing and Taipei; it is a layered contest over legitimacy, sovereignty, and the meaning of statehood in a shifting global order.
Across recent scholarly salons and policy interventions in Africa and beyond — particularly the Abuja media salon hosted by the China General Chamber of Commerce in Nigeria — a striking convergence has emerged around the One-China Principle, even as interpretations of its implications remain sharply contested.
The Historical Fault Line: 1949 and the Birth of Two Political Realities
The modern Taiwan question originates in the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 with the Communist Party of China establishing the People’s Republic of China on the mainland while the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) government retreated to Taiwan.
As Professor Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim forcefully stated at the Abuja salon:
“Taiwan is not a sovereign entity, it has no independence and it is not a member of the United Nations.”
From Beijing’s perspective, this was not the creation of two states but the continuation of one China under different administrations.
This position aligns with the broader Chinese narrative repeatedly emphasized in diplomatic discourse, including the categorical assertion that:
“Taiwan has never been a country, was never one in the past, and will never be one in the future.”
Taiwan, however, evolved in a very different direction. Over decades, it developed into a functioning democratic polity with its own political institutions, elections, military structure, and constitutional governance.
This divergence produces what scholars describe as a central paradox: a de facto state operating with constrained de jure recognition, facing a sovereign claim from a rising global power.
The Legal Architecture: UN Resolution 2758 and Competing Interpretations
A cornerstone of Beijing’s argument is United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, which restored China’s seat at the United Nations in 1971.
At the Abuja salon, Professor Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim insisted:
“This resolution has explicitly established… that there is only one seat for China in the United Nations, leaving no room for ‘two Chinas’ or ‘one China, one Taiwan’.”
From this perspective, Taiwan is not a separate subject of international law but part of China whose representation is subsumed under Beijing.
Taiwan and its supporters contest this interpretation, arguing that Resolution 2758 addresses representation — not sovereignty — leaving Taiwan’s political status deliberately unresolved.
This legal ambiguity has become what many scholars now describe as structured uncertainty, sustaining diplomatic flexibility while preventing formal resolution.
Beijing’s Position: Sovereignty, Reunification, and Historical Mission
China’s position is rooted in sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national rejuvenation.
As reiterated by President Xi Jinping:
“The great tide of compatriots on both sides of the strait becoming closer, more connected and coming together will not change. This is the verdict of history.”
In Chinese official discourse, reunification is not framed as a negotiable issue but as a historical inevitability tied to national revival.
This perspective was reinforced in Abuja by African analysts who align with Beijing’s framing of sovereignty as non-negotiable, with Professor Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim emphasizing that Africa’s diplomatic alignment reflects a global consensus increasingly anchored in the One-China Principle.
Taiwan’s Position: Democracy, Identity, and De Facto Sovereignty
Taiwan’s position rests on lived political reality and democratic self-governance.
While officially still called the Republic of China, Taiwan functions as an independent political system with its own elections, judiciary, military, and constitution.
Its leadership under President Lai Ching-te emphasizes Taiwan’s distinct political identity and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
From Beijing’s perspective, this is framed as separatism. From Taiwan’s perspective, it is democratic self-determination.
The result is a deeply entrenched ideological divide: territorial integrity versus political identity.
Strategic Ambiguity and Global Power Politics
A critical dimension of the Taiwan issue is the role of external powers, particularly the United States.
Washington’s policy of strategic ambiguity — recognizing the One-China framework while maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan — is widely seen as both stabilizing and contradictory.
At the Abuja salon, Prof. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim and other speakers framed external engagement with Taiwan as part of what they described as “separatist encouragement,” while emphasizing African alignment with Beijing’s position.
Africa’s Diplomatic Alignment and the One-China Consensus
A recurring theme in Abuja was overwhelming African diplomatic alignment with Beijing.
As multiple presenters emphasized:
“As of May 2026, 53 out of 54 African nations adhere to the One-China policy.”
The only exception remains Eswatini.
At the salon, Prof. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim argued that this position reflects historical continuity in African diplomacy:
“African nations have consistently stood with China on issues concerning its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Dr. Segun Showunmi, who is an Ace Public affairs analyst and social impact expert, with experience in governance, policy and civic engagement added that this alignment is not merely political but developmental:
“That consistency created trust and in international politics, trust often translates into investment, infrastructure, and strategic cooperation.”
The Abuja Diplomatic Intervention: China’s Official Position
A defining moment of the salon came from the representative of the Chinese state — the Counsellor of the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Nigeria, Ms.Dong Hairong— who reiterated Beijing’s formal position in unambiguous terms:
“There is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.”
This intervention anchored the entire discussion within the framework of Chinese sovereignty doctrine and reinforced that diplomatic relations with China are premised on acceptance of the One-China Principle.
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Prof. Sam Amadi: Strategic Ambiguity as Diplomatic Reality
Professor Sam Amadi, a policy strategist and law and governance expert, Director, Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts,
introduced a more analytical framing, arguing that global practice is defined not by clarity but by managed contradiction.
He stated:
“The One-China principle and One-China policy are clear, but difficult to operationalise.”
He further explained:
“What we have today is strategic ambiguity… meaning they acknowledge, but at the same time, they engage.”
For Amadi, the central question for Africa is not ideological but practical:
“Should we foreclose ambiguity and advance a straight One-China principle, which will exclude all kinds of trade and engagement with Taiwan?”
His conclusion favored diplomatic exclusivity with calibrated economic engagement.
Strategic Realism: Why the Status Quo Persists
Despite rhetorical intensity, the Taiwan issue persists in its unresolved form due to structural constraints:
* China cannot accept formal separation without undermining sovereignty doctrine
* Taiwan cannot accept reunification without losing political autonomy
* The United States benefits strategically from ambiguity
* African states largely align diplomatically with Beijing while prioritizing development ties
As Professor Amadi summarized:
“We acknowledge these principles, but we go back there and also deal with Taiwan in trade… using strategic ambiguity.”
Conclusion: History as Contest, Diplomacy as Equilibrium
The Abuja salon underscored a broader truth about the Taiwan question: it is not merely a territorial dispute but a global governance dilemma.
On one side stands China’s categorical assertion, echoed in Abuja:
“There is only one China.”
On the other stands Taiwan’s democratic identity and de facto autonomy.
Between them lies a global system that simultaneously enforces principle and tolerates ambiguity.
As reflected across the Abuja interventions, including those of Prof. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim, Dr. Segun Showunmi, Prof. Sam Amadi, and the Chinese diplomatic Counsellor, the Taiwan question endures not because it lacks answers — but because every available answer carries strategic consequences the world is unwilling to fully accept.
And so Taiwan remains what it has become in the 21st century: not only a territorial dispute, but a permanent stress test of international order itself.
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Update :FG Unveils Additional 10 Steps to Reduce Impact of Rising Fuel Prices
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The Federal Government has announced ten new measures to reduce the pain Nigerians feel from high fuel prices. It insists, however, that none of them brings back the old fuel subsidy for everyone.
The measures were presented by the Federal Ministry of Finance at a press briefing on Thursday, 8 October 2026, titled “Fuel Prices and the Subsidy Question.” The government admitted its earlier steps fell short. According to the presentation, “These measures do not fully relieve the pressure households feel today, so the government is going further.”
The government described the new package as “Help that is targeted, temporary and affordable.” In plain terms, the help is meant for those who need it most, will not last forever, and is designed so that the country can pay for it.
Cheaper petrol and more cash support
The first measure is a discount on petrol sold at NNPC filling stations. The discount will last for the next 30 days, and public transporters, such as commercial bus and taxi operators, will get priority. The government hopes this will help keep transport fares from rising further.
The government also plans to increase cash transfers to vulnerable households. Small businesses will get cheaper loans, known as subsidised credit, to help them cope with higher running costs.
Steps to keep pump prices steady
To protect Nigerians from sudden jumps in world oil prices, the government will sell crude oil in advance to local refineries. This is expected as oil production rises and crude previously committed to other purposes becomes available. The presentation says this will shield “pump prices from global swings.” ShopAfrican Art
The government will also introduce what it calls price modulation. Under this plan, a negotiated limit of ₦1,350 per litre will apply to the ex-gantry price (the price at the depot) or the landing cost (the cost of bringing the fuel into the country). The limit will be reviewed every month, so it can change as conditions change.
A National Strategic Fuel Reserve will also be set up. Fuel from the reserve will be released “under published rules when disruption or hoarding threatens supply.” This means the government can step in when fuel becomes scarce or when marketers hold back products to push up prices.
Lowering the cost of transport and doing business
The government says part of what Nigerians pay for transport comes from illegal charges on the roads. It will work with state governments under the 2025 tax laws to rein in road taxes that push up fares.
It will also speed up the rollout of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a cheaper alternative to petrol, again working with the states. Transporters who benefit from cheaper fuel are expected to “pass savings on in lower fares” to passengers.
Other steps target the cost of goods and services more broadly. The government will cut regulatory costs, described as red tape, that “feed into the price of goods and services.” It will also ease traffic in cities to save fuel, and it will use NIPOST address codes to reduce the cost of moving goods from one place to another.
One measure has not yet been decided. The government is considering an excess profit tax on operators it says exploit consumers. If it goes ahead, the money raised will fund transport support and vouchers for low-income earners.
No return to blanket subsidy
The ministry ended the presentation with a clear message, “None of these measures restores a blanket subsidy.” The government is therefore not returning to the old system, where fuel was sold cheaply to everyone. It says its new approach will reach “the people who need help without putting the wider economy at risk.”
The announcement comes as many households as possible, and businesses struggle with the high cost of transport, food, and other goods linked to fuel prices. How much relief Nigerians feel will depend on how quickly and effectively these measures are carried out, and whether transporters and marketers pass the benefits on to consumers.
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Nigeria Emerges as Africa’s Biggest Climber in Investment Risk Ranking on Back of Tinubu’s Economic Reforms
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Nigeria has emerged as the biggest climber in Africa’s latest investment risk ranking, rising four places to eighth position as economic reforms implemented by President Bola Tinubu improved the country’s relative attractiveness to investors, a new report by Bloomberg has stated.
Nigeria overtook Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, which assesses the relative investability of 19 African economies.
Bloomberg, in the report released on Monday, said Nigeria’s improvement was driven by stronger performance in three of the five indicators used in the assessment: economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability.
“Nigeria was the biggest climber in a ranking of Africa’s most investable markets, propelled by President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, according to the findings of the latest edition of An Investor’s Guide to Africa.
“The continent’s biggest oil producer and refiner rose four places to eighth in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, overtaking Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia as it improved in three of the five metrics assessed by the gauge: economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability,” Bloomberg reported.
The development puts Nigeria among the biggest gainers on the continent, despite ongoing concerns about the country’s high public debt, cost of living, inflation, infrastructure deficit and foreign exchange pressures.
Mauritius emerged as the most investable African market in the latest ranking, while Botswana fell two places. South Africa, which topped the ranking in the previous edition, also dropped one place following a weaker economic growth outlook.
Nigeria’s improved position comes more than three years after Tinubu assumed office and embarked on a series of major economic reforms aimed at restructuring the country’s fiscal and monetary environment.
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Among the most significant measures were the removal of the petrol subsidy, reforms to the foreign exchange market and changes to electricity tariffs.
The Federal Government has repeatedly defended the reforms as necessary to address distortions that had weighed on public finances, discouraged investment and placed pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
However, the policies have also increased economic hardship for households and businesses, particularly through higher transport, food and energy costs. Despite the adjustment pains, Nigeria’s economy has continued to expand during the period under review.
Real Gross Domestic Product growth rose from 2.54 per cent in the third quarter of 2023 to 3.46 per cent in the fourth quarter of that year.
The economy subsequently grew by an average of 3.19 per cent in 2024 before accelerating to 3.85 per cent in 2025, its strongest annual performance within the period covered by the assessment.
Growth stood at 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, bringing the average quarterly growth between the third quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2026 to about 3.46 per cent.
The stronger growth performance has come alongside efforts by the government to increase revenue, reduce fiscal leakages and attract investment into critical sectors of the economy.
Nigeria’s improved position in the Bloomberg ranking, however, comes against the backdrop of a substantial increase in public debt.
Data from the Debt Management Office showed that Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N87.38tn as of June 30, 2023, shortly after Tinubu took office. By December 31, 2025, the figure had risen to N159.28tn. This represents an increase of N71.90tn, or about 82.3 per cent, in two and a half years.
The increase was driven by new borrowing, foreign exchange adjustments and the securitisation of certain legacy obligations, according to the DMO.
The development is significant for a country that has struggled for years to attract sufficient foreign capital because of concerns over exchange-rate instability, policy uncertainty, weak infrastructure, insecurity and limited fiscal space.
The reforms under the Tinubu administration have sought to address some of these constraints by allowing market forces a greater role in determining fuel prices, foreign exchange rates and electricity tariffs.
The foreign exchange reforms, in particular, were designed to reduce multiple exchange rates and improve transparency in the currency market, while the removal of the petrol subsidy was intended to reduce the government’s fiscal burden.
The electricity tariff reforms were also aimed at improving the financial viability of the power sector and encouraging investment by allowing electricity prices for some customer categories to better reflect supply costs.
Nigeria’s rise in the Bloomberg ranking therefore marks an improvement in its relative position among African investment destinations, even as investors continue to monitor the sustainability of its reforms, debt burden and economic growth.
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Update : Tinubu Expected Back in Abuja Today After Six-Day Stay in Lagos
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is expected back in Abuja this evening after concluding a six-day stay in Lagos, the Presidency announced on Monday.
The President will depart Lagos for the Federal Capital Territory after a visit during which he participated in activities marking Nigeria’s 66th Independence Day anniversary and held other engagements. SahelSecurity Report
Tinubu arrived in Lagos on Tuesday, September 29, following his annual holiday in London and Paris.
While in Lagos, the President addressed Nigerians on October 1 to mark the country’s 66th Independence Day anniversary.
Later that day, he attended the national premiere of MKO, a documentary chronicling the life, political struggle, and legacy of the late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, as well as the historic June 12 pro-democracy struggle.
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The premiere was held at the Wole Soyinka Centre for Culture and Creative Arts in Lagos.
Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, confirmed the President’s return to Abuja in a State House statement issued on Monday.
“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will depart Lagos for Abuja this evening after his six-day visit to the former seat of government,” Onanuga said.
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