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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga

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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.

According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.

To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.

The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.

As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.

President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.

President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.

He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.

The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.

In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.

The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.

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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.

The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.

In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.

An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.

The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.

Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.

As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.

President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.

Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.

*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu

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Tinubu Unveils $7bn Plan to Drive Ogun Deep Seaport, Special Economic Zone, Says Onanuga

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President Bola Tinubu has unveiled an investment package of more than $7 billion for the development of the Ogun State Blue Marine Special Economic Zone and the Gateway Deep Seaport, describing the projects as a major step towards strengthening Nigeria’s maritime economy and attracting foreign investment.

In a statement by his Spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, on Thursday, the President spoke in Paris, France, during the signing of Memoranda of Understanding between the Ogun State Government and DP World, a global ports and logistics operator, for the development of the projects.

Tinubu assured domestic and foreign investors that the Federal Government would continue to provide regulatory clarity, policy stability and a predictable business environment to support long-term investments in Nigeria.

“The agreements before us bring together vision, expertise, capital and execution capacity. I particularly welcome DP World, one of the world’s leading port and logistics operators,” the President said.

He added that the Federal Government would provide the necessary regulatory and institutional support to ensure that the projects moved seamlessly from agreements to implementation.

According to the President, the agreements are expected to attract an initial investment of more than $7 billion into the Nigerian economy and create over 50,000 direct jobs when fully developed, alongside additional indirect employment opportunities.

Tinubu said the projects would also generate non-oil export earnings and contribute to Nigeria’s economic diversification.

“This is economic diversification made tangible. This is industrialisation made visible. This is Renewed Hope in action,” he said.

The proposed Gateway Deep Seaport at Ogun Waterside will have a four-kilometre berth and an 18-
metre draft. The facility is expected to help decongest the Lagos port corridor and ease pressure on the Apapa and Tin Can Island ports.

The president said the deeper draft would enable the port to accommodate larger vessels while providing a competitive gateway for trade within Nigeria and across the African Continental Free Trade Area.

He noted that the proposed Ogun State Blue Marine Special Economic Zone would cover about 10,000 hectares and would be integrated with the deep seaport to support manufacturing, processing, exports and logistics.

“The Gateway Deep Seaport is the critical infrastructure that will support the zone’s viability. A port moves cargo; a port integrated with a special economic zone helps to build an economy. Each reinforces the other,” Tinubu said.

He said the Federal Government would facilitate road, rail and power connectivity to the projects, while strengthening investment security and the maritime domain and removing unnecessary bureaucratic obstacles.

The president also linked the projects to the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, describing the Ogun section of the road as a critical transport connection for the emerging industrial and maritime corridor.

“The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway is central to this corridor’s commercial viability,” he said, adding that the 28-kilometre Ogun section of the 700-kilometre highway was scheduled for completion before the end of the year.

Tinubu said the port and industrial zone would also form part of a wider strategic corridor linking the proposed Nigerian Navy Operating Base and Dockyard with the OK LNG Project.

The President commended Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun and his administration for securing the land and structuring the investment framework.

“I commend Governor Dapo Abiodun and the government and people of Ogun State for securing the land, structuring the investment framework and reducing project risks for global investors,” he said.
Governor Abiodun led the Ogun State delegation at the signing ceremony, which also included state commissioners and other senior officials.

Senior representatives of DP World, the Nigerian Ports Authority and SkyKapital were also present at the event.

Tinubu urged Ogun State and the investors to maintain the momentum created by the agreements and move quickly towards implementation.

“Nigeria lies at the heart of West African trade. Yet, our strategic advantage has been constrained by port congestion, inadequate draft capacity and logistics bottlenecks that increase the cost of doing business. These projects respond directly to those constraints,” he said.

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Happy Birthday to Me! 🎂🎉

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Today, I celebrate myself and give all glory and thanks to Almighty God for the gift of life and for bringing me this far. I am grateful for the opportunity to be alive, healthy, peaceful, happy, and prosperous.

As I celebrate another year today, I pray for greater blessings, wisdom, good health, peace, success, and abundant prosperity in the years ahead.

May this new chapter of my life be filled with joy, favour, wonderful opportunities, and fulfilment of my heart’s desires.

Happy Birthday to me! 🥳🎉
Congratulations to me on this special day. 🙏❤️🎂

I wish myself many more happy and prosperous returns. Cheers to a beautiful new year of my life! 🥂🎉

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Update : Mambilla: Nigeria Wins $2.35bn ICC Arbitration, Tinubu Hails Buhari, Obasanjo

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The International Chamber of Commerce tribunal in Paris has ruled in favour of Nigeria in the arbitration brought by Sunrise Power and Transmission Company Limited over the Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project in Taraba State.

President Bola Tinubu, in a statement issued on Thursday by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, said the tribunal rejected the claims by Sunrise.

The company had sought $680m from Nigeria as a settlement sum and interest in relation to a separate arbitration in which it is claiming more than $2.7bn in compensation and interest over disputes surrounding the development of the 3,960-megawatt Mambilla project.

However, the tribunal, as reported by The Cable, also dismissed Sunrise’s claim for $400m arising from the 2020 settlement agreement, according to the details of the award reported on Thursday.

It further ordered Sunrise and its promoter, Leno Adesanya, to reimburse Nigeria 75 per cent of its legal fees and expenses, amounting to $11.82m.

The tribunal also reportedly declared that Adesanya was bound by the arbitration agreement with Nigeria under the settlement agreement and its addendum and that it had jurisdiction over Nigeria’s counterclaim against him and his firm.

In the statement, Tinubu said the ruling demonstrated the government’s determination to defend the country’s interests.

“This latest decision affirms the Nigerian State’s determination not to succumb to predatory and exploitative claims by corrupt local and international entities and their enablers and funders,” he said.

The President commended the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, and officials of the Federal Ministry of Justice for their role in the case.

He also commended former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, who testified in the arbitration.

“I also commend the FRN defence team, led by Ms Elizabeth Oger-Gross and Mr Tolu Obamuroh, both of Paul Hastings LLP, for their professional and excellent defence of the country.

“I commend the patriotism and support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, GCFR, and late President Muhammadu Buhari, GCFR, who testified in the case, which dated back to an illegal 2003 contract to build a 3,050-megawatt hydroelectric plant in Taraba State under a build-operate-transfer model.

“The Federal Executive Council never authorised the contract. I thank the other witnesses in this case, including former Ministers Babatunde Raji Fashola, SAN, and Suleiman Adamu, and the experts, for their active participation in defending Nigeria’s interest in the arbitration,” the statement read.

“I want to assure you that while our country remains committed to partnering with genuine investors and honouring its legal obligations, it will continue to defend all opportunistic claims instituted against our commonwealth strongly.

“Today’s ICC ruling clears the single biggest legal hurdle that has paralysed the Mambilla hydro power project for years,” Tinubu said.

The dispute dates back to an agreement under which Sunrise claimed it had been awarded the contract to construct the Mambilla project.

The company commenced arbitration against Nigeria at the ICC International Court of Arbitration in October 2017, seeking about $2.354bn over an alleged breach of contract.

The parties later entered into a settlement agreement in 2020, under which Nigeria was to pay Sunrise $200m.

A subsequent dispute arose after the government did not make the payment, leading to another arbitration in which Sunrise sought $400m, comprising the $200m settlement sum and a $200m default payment.

In Thursday’s award reported by The Cable, the tribunal rejected Sunrise’s claim that Nigeria had breached its obligations under the settlement agreement and its addendum.

It also rejected the company’s demand for the $400m settlement and default sums.

The Cable reported that the tribunal fixed the arbitration costs at $1.6565m, with Sunrise and Adesanya responsible for 75 per cent and Nigeria for 25 per cent. Of the $11.82m in legal fees and expenses awarded to Nigeria, $2.5m is to be recovered from funds held in escrow by the ICC, while the remaining $9.32m is payable by Sunrise and Adesanya, with interest at 10 per cent annually, compounded annually, from notification of the final award until payment.

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