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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga

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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.

According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.

To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.

The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.

As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.

President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.

President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.

He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.

The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.

In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.

The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.

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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.

The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.

In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.

An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.

The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.

Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.

As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.

President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.

Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.

*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu

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Update :FG Unveils Additional 10 Steps to Reduce Impact of Rising Fuel Prices

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The Federal Government has announced ten new measures to reduce the pain Nigerians feel from high fuel prices. It insists, however, that none of them brings back the old fuel subsidy for everyone.

The measures were presented by the Federal Ministry of Finance at a press briefing on Thursday, 8 October 2026, titled “Fuel Prices and the Subsidy Question.” The government admitted its earlier steps fell short. According to the presentation, “These measures do not fully relieve the pressure households feel today, so the government is going further.”

The government described the new package as “Help that is targeted, temporary and affordable.” In plain terms, the help is meant for those who need it most, will not last forever, and is designed so that the country can pay for it.

Cheaper petrol and more cash support

The first measure is a discount on petrol sold at NNPC filling stations. The discount will last for the next 30 days, and public transporters, such as commercial bus and taxi operators, will get priority. The government hopes this will help keep transport fares from rising further.

The government also plans to increase cash transfers to vulnerable households. Small businesses will get cheaper loans, known as subsidised credit, to help them cope with higher running costs.

Steps to keep pump prices steady

To protect Nigerians from sudden jumps in world oil prices, the government will sell crude oil in advance to local refineries. This is expected as oil production rises and crude previously committed to other purposes becomes available. The presentation says this will shield “pump prices from global swings.” ShopAfrican Art

The government will also introduce what it calls price modulation. Under this plan, a negotiated limit of ₦1,350 per litre will apply to the ex-gantry price (the price at the depot) or the landing cost (the cost of bringing the fuel into the country). The limit will be reviewed every month, so it can change as conditions change.

A National Strategic Fuel Reserve will also be set up. Fuel from the reserve will be released “under published rules when disruption or hoarding threatens supply.” This means the government can step in when fuel becomes scarce or when marketers hold back products to push up prices.

Lowering the cost of transport and doing business

The government says part of what Nigerians pay for transport comes from illegal charges on the roads. It will work with state governments under the 2025 tax laws to rein in road taxes that push up fares.

It will also speed up the rollout of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a cheaper alternative to petrol, again working with the states. Transporters who benefit from cheaper fuel are expected to “pass savings on in lower fares” to passengers.

Other steps target the cost of goods and services more broadly. The government will cut regulatory costs, described as red tape, that “feed into the price of goods and services.” It will also ease traffic in cities to save fuel, and it will use NIPOST address codes to reduce the cost of moving goods from one place to another.

One measure has not yet been decided. The government is considering an excess profit tax on operators it says exploit consumers. If it goes ahead, the money raised will fund transport support and vouchers for low-income earners.

No return to blanket subsidy

The ministry ended the presentation with a clear message, “None of these measures restores a blanket subsidy.” The government is therefore not returning to the old system, where fuel was sold cheaply to everyone. It says its new approach will reach “the people who need help without putting the wider economy at risk.”

The announcement comes as many households as possible, and businesses struggle with the high cost of transport, food, and other goods linked to fuel prices. How much relief Nigerians feel will depend on how quickly and effectively these measures are carried out, and whether transporters and marketers pass the benefits on to consumers.

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Nigeria Emerges as Africa’s Biggest Climber in Investment Risk Ranking on Back of Tinubu’s Economic Reforms

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Nigeria has emerged as the biggest climber in Africa’s latest investment risk ranking, rising four places to eighth position as economic reforms implemented by President Bola Tinubu improved the country’s relative attractiveness to investors, a new report by Bloomberg has stated.

Nigeria overtook Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, which assesses the relative investability of 19 African economies.

Bloomberg, in the report released on Monday, said Nigeria’s improvement was driven by stronger performance in three of the five indicators used in the assessment: economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability.

“Nigeria was the biggest climber in a ranking of Africa’s most investable markets, propelled by President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, according to the findings of the latest edition of An Investor’s Guide to Africa.

“The continent’s biggest oil producer and refiner rose four places to eighth in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, overtaking Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia as it improved in three of the five metrics assessed by the gauge: economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability,” Bloomberg reported.

The development puts Nigeria among the biggest gainers on the continent, despite ongoing concerns about the country’s high public debt, cost of living, inflation, infrastructure deficit and foreign exchange pressures.

Mauritius emerged as the most investable African market in the latest ranking, while Botswana fell two places. South Africa, which topped the ranking in the previous edition, also dropped one place following a weaker economic growth outlook.

Nigeria’s improved position comes more than three years after Tinubu assumed office and embarked on a series of major economic reforms aimed at restructuring the country’s fiscal and monetary environment.

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Among the most significant measures were the removal of the petrol subsidy, reforms to the foreign exchange market and changes to electricity tariffs.

The Federal Government has repeatedly defended the reforms as necessary to address distortions that had weighed on public finances, discouraged investment and placed pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

However, the policies have also increased economic hardship for households and businesses, particularly through higher transport, food and energy costs. Despite the adjustment pains, Nigeria’s economy has continued to expand during the period under review.

Real Gross Domestic Product growth rose from 2.54 per cent in the third quarter of 2023 to 3.46 per cent in the fourth quarter of that year.

The economy subsequently grew by an average of 3.19 per cent in 2024 before accelerating to 3.85 per cent in 2025, its strongest annual performance within the period covered by the assessment.

Growth stood at 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, bringing the average quarterly growth between the third quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2026 to about 3.46 per cent.

The stronger growth performance has come alongside efforts by the government to increase revenue, reduce fiscal leakages and attract investment into critical sectors of the economy.

Nigeria’s improved position in the Bloomberg ranking, however, comes against the backdrop of a substantial increase in public debt.

Data from the Debt Management Office showed that Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N87.38tn as of June 30, 2023, shortly after Tinubu took office. By December 31, 2025, the figure had risen to N159.28tn. This represents an increase of N71.90tn, or about 82.3 per cent, in two and a half years.

The increase was driven by new borrowing, foreign exchange adjustments and the securitisation of certain legacy obligations, according to the DMO.

The development is significant for a country that has struggled for years to attract sufficient foreign capital because of concerns over exchange-rate instability, policy uncertainty, weak infrastructure, insecurity and limited fiscal space.

The reforms under the Tinubu administration have sought to address some of these constraints by allowing market forces a greater role in determining fuel prices, foreign exchange rates and electricity tariffs.

The foreign exchange reforms, in particular, were designed to reduce multiple exchange rates and improve transparency in the currency market, while the removal of the petrol subsidy was intended to reduce the government’s fiscal burden.

The electricity tariff reforms were also aimed at improving the financial viability of the power sector and encouraging investment by allowing electricity prices for some customer categories to better reflect supply costs.

Nigeria’s rise in the Bloomberg ranking therefore marks an improvement in its relative position among African investment destinations, even as investors continue to monitor the sustainability of its reforms, debt burden and economic growth.

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Update : Tinubu Expected Back in Abuja Today After Six-Day Stay in Lagos

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is expected back in Abuja this evening after concluding a six-day stay in Lagos, the Presidency announced on Monday.

The President will depart Lagos for the Federal Capital Territory after a visit during which he participated in activities marking Nigeria’s 66th Independence Day anniversary and held other engagements. SahelSecurity Report

Tinubu arrived in Lagos on Tuesday, September 29, following his annual holiday in London and Paris.

While in Lagos, the President addressed Nigerians on October 1 to mark the country’s 66th Independence Day anniversary.

Later that day, he attended the national premiere of MKO, a documentary chronicling the life, political struggle, and legacy of the late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, as well as the historic June 12 pro-democracy struggle.

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The premiere was held at the Wole Soyinka Centre for Culture and Creative Arts in Lagos.

Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, confirmed the President’s return to Abuja in a State House statement issued on Monday.

“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will depart Lagos for Abuja this evening after his six-day visit to the former seat of government,” Onanuga said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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