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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga
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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.
According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.
To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.
The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.
As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.
President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.
President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.
He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.
The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.
In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.
The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.
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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.
The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.
In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.
An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.
The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.
Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.
As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.
President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.
Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.
*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu
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Update : Mambilla: Nigeria Wins $2.35bn ICC Arbitration, Tinubu Hails Buhari, Obasanjo
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The International Chamber of Commerce tribunal in Paris has ruled in favour of Nigeria in the arbitration brought by Sunrise Power and Transmission Company Limited over the Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project in Taraba State.
President Bola Tinubu, in a statement issued on Thursday by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, said the tribunal rejected the claims by Sunrise.
The company had sought $680m from Nigeria as a settlement sum and interest in relation to a separate arbitration in which it is claiming more than $2.7bn in compensation and interest over disputes surrounding the development of the 3,960-megawatt Mambilla project.
However, the tribunal, as reported by The Cable, also dismissed Sunrise’s claim for $400m arising from the 2020 settlement agreement, according to the details of the award reported on Thursday.
It further ordered Sunrise and its promoter, Leno Adesanya, to reimburse Nigeria 75 per cent of its legal fees and expenses, amounting to $11.82m.
The tribunal also reportedly declared that Adesanya was bound by the arbitration agreement with Nigeria under the settlement agreement and its addendum and that it had jurisdiction over Nigeria’s counterclaim against him and his firm.
In the statement, Tinubu said the ruling demonstrated the government’s determination to defend the country’s interests.
“This latest decision affirms the Nigerian State’s determination not to succumb to predatory and exploitative claims by corrupt local and international entities and their enablers and funders,” he said.
The President commended the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, and officials of the Federal Ministry of Justice for their role in the case.
He also commended former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, who testified in the arbitration.
“I also commend the FRN defence team, led by Ms Elizabeth Oger-Gross and Mr Tolu Obamuroh, both of Paul Hastings LLP, for their professional and excellent defence of the country.
“I commend the patriotism and support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, GCFR, and late President Muhammadu Buhari, GCFR, who testified in the case, which dated back to an illegal 2003 contract to build a 3,050-megawatt hydroelectric plant in Taraba State under a build-operate-transfer model.
“The Federal Executive Council never authorised the contract. I thank the other witnesses in this case, including former Ministers Babatunde Raji Fashola, SAN, and Suleiman Adamu, and the experts, for their active participation in defending Nigeria’s interest in the arbitration,” the statement read.
“I want to assure you that while our country remains committed to partnering with genuine investors and honouring its legal obligations, it will continue to defend all opportunistic claims instituted against our commonwealth strongly.
“Today’s ICC ruling clears the single biggest legal hurdle that has paralysed the Mambilla hydro power project for years,” Tinubu said.
The dispute dates back to an agreement under which Sunrise claimed it had been awarded the contract to construct the Mambilla project.
The company commenced arbitration against Nigeria at the ICC International Court of Arbitration in October 2017, seeking about $2.354bn over an alleged breach of contract.
The parties later entered into a settlement agreement in 2020, under which Nigeria was to pay Sunrise $200m.
A subsequent dispute arose after the government did not make the payment, leading to another arbitration in which Sunrise sought $400m, comprising the $200m settlement sum and a $200m default payment.
In Thursday’s award reported by The Cable, the tribunal rejected Sunrise’s claim that Nigeria had breached its obligations under the settlement agreement and its addendum.
It also rejected the company’s demand for the $400m settlement and default sums.
The Cable reported that the tribunal fixed the arbitration costs at $1.6565m, with Sunrise and Adesanya responsible for 75 per cent and Nigeria for 25 per cent. Of the $11.82m in legal fees and expenses awarded to Nigeria, $2.5m is to be recovered from funds held in escrow by the ICC, while the remaining $9.32m is payable by Sunrise and Adesanya, with interest at 10 per cent annually, compounded annually, from notification of the final award until payment.
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Tinubu Tasks NIMC on 95% NIN Coverage Before December — Gbajabiamila
President Bola Tinubu has urged the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) to work towards achieving 95 per cent National Identity Number (NIN) coverage by December 2026.
The President gave the directive at the State House, Abuja, while delivering the keynote address at the 2026 National Identity Day celebration organised by NIMC.
He acknowledged NIMC’s excellent work so far, noting that National Identity Number (NIN) enrolment peaked at about 142 million, up from over 80 million Nigerians captured in the National Identity Database when he assumed office more than three years ago.
President Tinubu was represented at the event by his Chief of Staff, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila. The event had the theme: “Nigeria’s digital public ecosystem: powering Africa’s digital economy.”
It was attended by the representative of Vice President Kashim Shettima, Senator Ibrahim Hadejia; the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume; the Minister of Interior, Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo; and the Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, amongst others.
President Tinubu said the target should be pursued through expanded ward-level enrolment, mobile registration initiatives and continued deployment of licensed enrolment networks. Government
The President noted that his administration’s vision goes beyond NIN coverage, stating that Nigeria “must build an identity system that is continuously useful, secure and responsive to the needs of Nigerians.”
“We are laying the foundations for a future of integrated digital services, including e-health records, e-transport systems and a more harmonised national data architecture.
“We must do this while protecting the rights, privacy and dignity of our citizens. The digital state must never become a state without accountability.
“Our commitment must therefore remain clear: innovation must be matched by responsibility. Efficiency must be matched by inclusion, security must be matched by trust. And digital transformation must ultimately improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians,” President Tinubu said.
The President, who commended the Director General of NIMC, Engr Abisoye Coker-Odusote, for a job well done over the past three years, called on Nigerians who have not obtained their NIN to do so, saying their NIN represents their connection to a modern Nigerian state.
Tinubu also applauded this year’s National Identity Day theme as very important, saying “Nigeria’s digital ecosystem must power Nigeria’s digital economy–and Nigeria’s digital economy must help power Africa’s.”
The President further said National Identity remains the engine room for the government’s Renewed Hope Agenda, noting that identity transformation is contributing directly to the government’s priorities.
“The NIMC ecosystem has created opportunities for thousands of Nigerians across the country. With more than 173 private companies, 30 state governments and 14 public sector institutions approved as licensed enrolment agents, the identity ecosystem is generating employment for enrolment officers, data professionals, supervisors, technology specialists and other support personnel. This is a digital infrastructure creating real economic opportunity,” he said. NigeriaNews Subscription
Speaking on the significance of national identity to Nigeria’s national security, President Tinubu said the two are linked, describing the connection as indispensable.
“A secure identity system is indispensable to a secure nation. By strengthening identity verification and enabling responsible information sharing across relevant government institutions, we are improving our capacity to combat identity fraud, financial crimes and other threats to national security.
“The ongoing collaboration among institutions, including the Nigeria Police Force, Nigeria Immigration Service, and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, demonstrates what is possible when government systems work together,” President Tinubu said. GeographicReference
The Minister of Interior, Dr Olubunmi Tunji- Ojo, also praised the Director General of NIMC for delivering excellent work with little supervision, saying she has shown appreciable leadership.
He said the President expected more from her and her team, adding that Nigerians need wider, easier, and more convenient access to identity services, including for Nigerians in the diaspora.
“We need more in providing a trusted national public key infrastructure and digital public infrastructure that support secure digital identity, authentication and electronic trust services, more in including a stronger foundation for Nigeria’s digital economy, digital governance and long-term national development,” Tunji-Ojo said. GeographicReference
The Director General of NIMC, Abisoye Coker-Odusote, in her remarks, commended President Tinubu and the Minister of Interior for their support, saying it has brought about a total transformation of Nigeria’s identity and existence.
She said, “Our reach tells its own story. Enrolments have grown from less than 100 million to over 142 million Nigerians and legal residents. The engine behind that growth is the ward-to-ward Enrolment Project, undertaken directly under Mr President’s initiative. NigeriaNews Subscription
“This project carried our officers into all 8, 8,809 boards of this Federation and mobilised the National Youth Service Corps members as adult enrolment officers in connection with front-end partners in communities that had never before hosted an enrolment desk.
“Alongside it, we launched the Self- Service Notification Platform, which has already processed close to two million record updates, turning a process that once took weeks in two communities into one that takes 24 to 48 hours directly from a citizen’s phone.”
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Anambra Debt Row: Presidency Questions Obi’s Record as Governor
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The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election and a leading opposition figure ahead of the 2027 presidential election, Peter Obi.
The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress,
The Presidency has reacted to the ongoing dispute between former Anambra State Governor and presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi, and the state government over the state’s debts and financial liabilities.
Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, in a post on X on Wednesday, said Obi had claimed to have left Anambra without debt and challenged him to follow through on his pledge to quit the presidential race if his claim was disproved.
Bayo Onanuga. US
File: Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga.
Onanuga wrote, “Peter Obi claimed he left Anambra with a clean slate of debt and even threatened to quit the presidential race if his claims were proven otherwise.”
He added that the Anambra State Government had responded with claims concerning liabilities allegedly left by the former governor’s administration.
“Now, the Anambra government has confronted him with facts and figures showing he owed Water Corporation workers, teachers, and pension and gratuities, and had also borrowed for frivolous things,” Onanuga said.
“The ball is back in his court. Will he follow through on his threat by quitting the race?” he asked.
Anambra govt disputes Obi’s ₦2.13bn ecological fund claim
The reaction followed a fresh response by the Anambra State Government to Obi’s Tuesday denial of claims that his administration left behind inherited debts, including a ₦2bn ecological fund, contractor liabilities and unpaid salaries, gratuities and pensions.
Obi had said his administration cleared more than ₦35bn in historical gratuities and arrears and left office without outstanding salary, pension or gratuity obligations.
He also disputed the government’s claim concerning the ecological fund, saying more than ₦2.13bn was left untouched in a First Bank account for the Oko/Umuchiana erosion crisis.
Soludo
File: Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra State
However, in a statement on Wednesday, Anambra State Commissioner for Information and Value Reformation, Law Mefor, disputed Obi’s account, saying the account he identified was an Internally Generated Revenue Consolidated Revenue Account and not an ecological fund account.
Mefor said the government obtained a certified printout of the account and claimed that “from 2011 when the account was opened until date, there has never been any such amount—whether as inflow or balance—in the account.”
Obi had challenged anyone who could establish that his account of the state’s finances was incorrect, saying, “If anybody can establish anything to the contrary, I will stop campaigning.”
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