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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga

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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.

According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.

To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.

The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.

As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.

President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.

President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.

He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.

The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.

In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.

The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.

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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.

The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.

In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.

An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.

The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.

Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.

As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.

President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.

Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.

*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu

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Breaking : UK Tightens Security With Road Closures, No-Fly Zones for Tinubu’s Visit

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Britain will impose airspace restrictions and deploy armed police officers in Windsor next week as President Bola Tinubu arrives for a state visit hosted by King Charles III.

Tinubu is expected to begin the visit in the company of his wife Oluremi Tinubu on Wednesday, March 18, with a reception at Windsor Castle.

Thames Valley Police in a statement on its website on Wednesday, said it is working with the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead, the Royal Household and other security partners.

The force said airspace restrictions over Windsor Castle, which are in place permanently throughout the year, would be extended on Wednesday, March 18, to cover the period from 7am to 11.59pm.

Chief Superintendent Adrian Hall of Thames Valley Police’s Joint Operations Unit said the air restrictions formed part of a broader security operation for the visit.

“The air restrictions are just one part of our robust security operation for the state visit of Nigerian President Tinubu next week, with many measures you will see and others you will not..

“As a force, we have a vast amount of experience in policing Royal events in Windsor and significant planning, and preparation has gone into this event,” Hall said.

He said the force would take a strong stance in enforcing the restrictions, warning that any breach would constitute a criminal offence under the Air Navigation Order and could lead to arrest.

“We will be taking a strong stance in enforcing the restrictions; anyone who breaches them will be committing a criminal offence under the Air Navigation Order and could be arrested.”

The police chief said officers with specialist capabilities, including search teams, the Mounted Section, road policing, and armed units, would be deployed across Windsor, alongside neighbourhood policing and Project Servator resources.

“We will also be deploying numerous police officers to Windsor with specialist capabilities, including our search teams, Mounted Section, Roads Policing and armed units, while our neighbourhood and Project Servator resources will also be on the ground engaging with the public,” he said.

The authorities will also deploy an extensive closed-circuit television network, hostile vehicle mitigation barriers, and other undisclosed security measures for the event.

Hall said, “We will also be using the extensive CCTV network in Windsor, Hostile Vehicle Mitigation barriers, and many other security measures that you may not be able to see to make sure the event runs safely.”

He urged members of the public to support the security operation by remaining vigilant.

“The public plays a critical role to support us so we encourage them to report any suspicious activity or anything that does not seem quite right by calling 101 or speaking to one of our officers. If there is an immediate threat or emergency, then call 999,” Hall added.

Road closures and parking restrictions will take effect from Tuesday, March 17, with possible temporary disruption to roads in and around Windsor during the visit.

Thames Valley Police said it was being supported by the Civil Aviation Authority and National Air Traffic Services to enforce the flight restrictions. Persons with legitimate reasons for drone flying were directed to email [email protected].

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BREAKING: PDP Convention Crisis Deepens as Appeal Court Backs Order Against INEC Recognition

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…dismisses appeal, awards N2m cost against party

The Court of Appeal in Abuja has dismissed an appeal by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) against the October 31 judgment by Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court in Abuja restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from recognising the outcome of the national convention planned for Ibadan, Oyo State on November 15 and 16 by the PDP.

In a unanimous judgment on Monday, a three-member panel of the appellate court resolved the four issues for determination against the PDP.

It held that the appeal by the PDP was without merit and that the Federal High Court was right to have entered the October 31 judgment and granted all the reliefs sought by the plaintiffs.

The Court of Appeal faulted the PDP’s claim that the trial court lacked jurisdiction to have heard the case on the grounds that issues involved were solely internal affairs of the party.

The court also held that the plaintiffs had the locus standi to have institutes the suit to protect their democratic rights and that the PDP was not denied fair hearing as it claimed in its appeal.

The court awarded N2million cost against the PDP for filing a frivolous appeal.

The court is yet to render its decisions in the remaining eight appeals, which include judgment and rulings

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Opeifa Defends Rail Reforms, Unveils Nationwide Expansion Roadmap

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Opeifa maintained that derailments are not peculiar to Nigeria, noting that such incidents occur across advanced rail systems globally.

“Derailments are regular occurrences in the rail sector worldwide. In February alone, there were incidents in countries like Britain and others. Around the same time we experienced one, there were multiple derailments across the world,” he said.

He disclosed that in 2025, Nigeria recorded three major derailments:
• August 26 at Asham in Kaduna State
• November 1 at Abraka on the Warri–Itakpe line
• November 8 at Agbor on the same corridor

He said the NRC responded swiftly, restoring services within 24 hours in one case, while others were resolved within 21 and 28 days respectively.

Opeifa stressed that derailments can result from factors such as weather conditions, signal glitches, human error, speeding, or aging infrastructure, but noted that in Nigeria’s recent cases, there were no fatalities.

“These incidents are preventable and efforts are ongoing to minimize them. However, they should not be seen as major setbacks to the overall progress of the railway system,” he said.

On Allegations of Mismanagement

Addressing allegations of financial mismanagement within the corporation, Opeifa declined detailed comments, citing ongoing legal processes.

“When a matter is in court, it is sub judice. Allegations of corruption or mismanagement should be handled by the appropriate authorities,” he stated.

He reiterated that his priority is to reposition the NRC in line with global best practices and ensure efficient rail services for Nigerians.

Expansion, Upgrades and National Connectivity

The NRC boss said efforts are underway to restore damaged coaches and upgrade infrastructure using local engineers and technicians.

“We are bringing back the lines and retrofitting coaches. The Warri–Itakpe line is operational. The Abuja–Kaduna line is running, and we are increasing trips from two to three,” he said.

On long-term plans, Opeifa disclosed that the NRC roadmap envisions rail connectivity across major cities nationwide, subject to funding and phased execution.

He dismissed claims of abandoned projects, explaining that rail developments are capital-intensive and implemented in phases based on available resources.

He cited progress on the Lagos–Ibadan corridor—part of the larger Lagos–Kano project—as well as ongoing work on the Kano–Maradi line linking key northern cities.

Lagos–South-East, Port Connections in View

Opeifa also highlighted plans to expand connectivity between southern ports and inland cities. These include proposed links from Warri to Abuja and from Lekki Deep Sea Port to Kajola, Benin, Onitsha, and Aba, enabling both passenger and cargo movement.

Toward Modern Signaling and Faster Trains

On modernization, he said Nigeria is gradually upgrading from older narrow-gauge systems to standard-gauge infrastructure with improved signaling technology.

He noted that metro rail projects in Kaduna, Kano, and Lagos are being developed with higher signaling standards, positioning the country for faster and more efficient train services in the coming years.

“We are not yet at the highest global level, but we are moving steadily upward,” Opeifa said.

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