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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga
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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.
According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.
To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.
The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.
As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.
President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.
President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.
He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.
The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.
In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.
The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.
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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.
The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.
In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.
An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.
The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.
Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.
As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.
President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.
Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.
*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu
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Democracy Day: Tinubu Honours Heroes, Seeks Stronger Collective Action on Terrorism
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President honours Gens. Yar’Adua, Williams, Igbokwe, media moguls, activists, other heros
With a call on Nigerians to unite in the fight against terrorism, banditry and kidnapping, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reflected on the nation’s 27 years of uninterrupted democracy.
He said such joint efforts had become imperative because the battle against insecurity cannot be left to the government alone.
The President listed some deserving individuals, including the late Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, Gen. Ishola Williams, media executives, rights crusaders and others for national honours.
In his Democracy Day broadcast this morning, the President urged citizens to avoid ethnic profiling and blame games in the face of security challenges.
He assured that the country would emerge stronger and more united after overcoming terrorism.
He said: “At a time like this, let us not assign blame or point fingers. Crime has no ethnicity.
“We must stand united and be assured that the enemies of our nation shall soon be history.
“We will triumph over terror and continue to build a more prosperous nation.”
The President spoke against the backdrop of recent abductions in Oyo and Borno states.
He described the incidents as a painful reminder that democracy cannot thrive without security.
Expressing optimism that the abducted children would regain their freedom, Tinubu stressed that his administration had responded decisively by declaring a security emergency and approving the recruitment of more than 50,000 police officers and thousands of military personnel.
Besides, he said the government allocated N5.41 trillion to defence and security in the 2026 Budget, describing it as the largest security vote ever.
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“Democracy without security is a mirage,” he said, noting that the allocation represents the biggest defence and security budget in Nigeria’s history.
Tinubu said the country had moved beyond conventional military training exercises with international partners to precision targeting of terrorist networks, citing the degradation of an ISWAP command centre in Arege, Borno State, as evidence of progress.
Reflecting on the democratic journey, Tinubu said the country had enjoyed its longest uninterrupted period of civilian rule, spanning 27 years since the return to democratic governance in 1999.
He noted that despite its imperfections, Nigeria’s democracy remained resilient because citizens had consistently chosen leaders through the ballot box, resolved disputes through legal institutions and ensured peaceful transitions of power.
Ahead of the forthcoming governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states, the President urged stakeholders to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process.
He called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies and political parties to ensure peaceful and credible polls, warning that democracy suffers whenever citizens lose confidence in elections.
The Ekiti governorship election will be held on June 20, while the Osun poll is scheduled for August 15.
Tinubu challenged the National Assembly, the Judiciary, the media and civil society organisations to continue serving as guardians of democratic governance.
“Criticise me, disagree with me, but never stop believing in Nigeria,” he said.
On youths, the President urged them to see the country as their future and contribute actively to national development rather than seeking opportunities elsewhere.
He said: “Nigeria is your home and your future. Build here, code here, work here, and vote here. Every great nation was built by those who stayed to solve problems, not by those who abandoned ship.”
The President also commended members of the armed forces, police, intelligence agencies, traditional rulers, religious leaders and community heads for their roles in promoting peace and national cohesion.
The President paid glowing tribute to Nigerians who endured imprisonment, exile, persecution and death during the struggle for democracy, describing them as heroes whose sacrifices made the current democratic dispensation possible.
He saluted the late winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola, and his deceased spouse, Alhaja Kudirat Abiola, alongside other democracy vanguards.
Former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2018 signed an Executive Order proclaiming June 12, the date of the historic election won by Abiola but annulled by the military, as Democracy Day. It has since been observed as a public holiday.
Those listed for national recognition include Chief Gani Fawehinmi, Chief Bola Ige, Chief Alfred Rewane, Senator Abraham Adesanya, Chief Anthony Enahoro, Alhaji Balarabe Musa, Commodore Dan Suleiman, Dr. Beko Ransome-Kuti, Chief Frank Kokori, Chief Arthur Nwankwo, Mr. Chima Ubani and Gen. Yar’Adua.
Tinubu also announced national honours for many journalists, activists, lawyers, politicians and civil society leaders who suffered persecution, detention, exile and other hardships during the struggle against military rule.
Many military officers who were persecuted during the pro-democracy struggle were also honoured.
They are Ayoka Lawani, Tunde Fagbenle, Oladele Alake, Olatunji Bello, Louis Odion, Segun Babatope, Sam Omatseye, Ademola Osinubi, Bola Bolawole, Lade Bonuola, Femi Kusa, Osa Director, Richard Akinnola, George Mbah, Niran Malaolu, Gbemiga Ogunleye, Jenkins Alumona, Muyiwa Adekeye, Babajide Kolade-Otitoju, Ike Okonta and Ben Charles-Obi (posthumous).
Activists on the list are Debo Adeniran, Ayo Opadokun, Ralph Obiora, Ose Osayande, Sylvester Odion-Akhaine and Arthur Nwankwo (posthumous).
Others are Osagie Obayuwana, Joe Okei-Odumakin, Titus Mann, Joe Igbokwe, Maj.-Gen. Ishola Williams (retd) and Femi Aborisade.
The President equally recognised many military officers, including Maj.-Gen. M.A. Garba, Brig.-Gen. Lawal Jaafaru Isa, Col. Umar Farouk Ahmed, Col. Sambo Dasuki, Col. Lawan Gwadabe, Brig. Jonathan Ndam Temlong, Col. Musa Shehu, Maj.-Gen. Chris Eze, Maj.-Gen. Harris Dzarma, Col. Isa Jibrin, Maj.-Gen. Joseph Oshanupin, Col. Olusegun Oloruntoba, Lt.-Col. Happy Kefas Bulus, Col. J. Okai, Col. Emmanuel Ndubueze, Lt.-Col. Yakubu Muazu and Brig. Yahaya Abubakar, who is the Etsu Nupe.
The President added: “Among the architects of modern democratic Nigeria, we honour General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua for his vision of national partnership.
“In recognition of his contributions, the Federal Government has approved the revitalisation and renaming of the completed Institute of Petroleum Studies, Kaduna, as the General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua University of Geological Sciences and Engineering Technology.”
Tinubu said the full honours list would be released in the coming days.
According to him, the greatest tribute Nigerians can pay to the heroes is to build a nation where freedom is protected, justice is upheld, opportunities are expanded, and government remains accountable to the people.
June 12, he believes, demonstrates the possibility of a united Nigerian nation, noting that while the heroes of that struggle secured political freedom, the responsibility of the present generation is to secure economic freedom.
‘Reforms necessary’
He defended the economic reforms undertaken by his administration, arguing that they were necessary to rescue the country from severe fiscal strain and economic uncertainty.
The President said the reforms had restored stability and credibility to economic management, increased federation revenues, improved fiscal transparency and attracted fresh investments into agriculture, manufacturing, energy, technology, mining, transportation and the creative sector.
He added that domestic refining capacity had expanded significantly, enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on imported petroleum products.
‘We’ll deliver on electricity supply’
On electricity, Tinubu said his administration inherited a sector plagued by inadequate generation, weak transmission infrastructure, huge distribution losses, a metering deficit exceeding four million customers and massive legacy debts.
He noted that the Electricity Act signed by his administration had empowered states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity, while the Presidential Power Sector Task Force had been mandated to tackle the metering gap and raise a N4 trillion bond to settle verified debts in the sector.
The President said the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), with support from the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB), was extending off-grid and mini-grid electricity projects to underserved communities, educational institutions, markets and hospitals across the country.
“Electricity is a democratic dividend we owe every Nigerian. We intend to deliver it,” he said.
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Highlighting ongoing projects, the President said they were creating jobs, improving connectivity and opening new opportunities for enterprise.
He said the National Agricultural Development Fund (NADF) was deploying 10,000 tractors over five years, while over 1,000 small and medium enterprises had been certified for export.
He added that non-oil exports grew by 21 per cent in the past year.
Despite the progress, the President acknowledged that many Nigerians continued to face economic hardship.
He assured citizens that the government remained focused on reducing inflation, increasing food production, creating jobs, improving living standards and ensuring that the benefits of economic reforms reached every household.
“We are moving from uncertainty to stability. The next phase is about accelerating growth and ensuring the benefits are felt in every home, every community and every region. We believe that democracy must be felt in the pocket,” he said.
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BREAKING: Reps Pass State Police Bill in Major Security Reform Move
The House of Representatives has passed the state police bill, effectively making way for the decentralisation of the Nigerian policing architecture.
The resolution followed the voting by 289 lawmakers in favour of state police during Thursday’s plenary session presided over by the Speaker, Tajudeen Abbas.
Recall that the House committed Thursday’s plenary to voting on the State Police Bill following the spike in killings, kidnappings, and banditry in the past few months.
The session was not without its fair share of drama, as shortly after the lawmakers settled down for the business of the day, Kaduna lawmaker, Bashir Zubairu, moved a point of order, explaining that the document on the proposed state police put together by the House Committee on Constitution Review got to the lawmakers only on Thursday afternoon.
Recognised to speak by the speaker, Zubairu said, “Mr Speaker, this document was only made available to lawmakers in the chambers, and we are yet to go through it. We cannot do justice to it because we have not gone through it.”
Zubairu, a member of the African Democratic Congress, was ruled out of order, allowing the process to proceed.
While the Speaker took members through the clauses, voices shouting “Point of Order” could be heard, but the presiding officer ignored them.
Before the voting began, Abbas announced that the electronic voting system was faulty, noting that the exercise would be conducted based on attendance.
Out of the 290 members in attendance, 289 voted in favour of state police while one voted against. The Speaker abstained from voting.
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No More Delays’ — Senate Leader Confirms State Police Bill Passage This Week
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The National Assembly is set to pass the constitutional amendment bill establishing state police this week, Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele has disclosed, describing the reform as long overdue in view of Nigeria’s worsening security challenges.
Speaking in an interview with journalists, the lawmaker representing Ekiti Central Senatorial District said the National Assembly had concluded consultations with key stakeholders and was ready to fast-track the amendment process.
According to him, the amendment would be separated from the broader constitutional review exercise to ensure speedy passage and transmission to the 36 state Houses of Assembly for ratification.
“A cross-section of Nigerians has made it abundantly clear that there cannot be a better time to establish state police than now. We have reached a firm conclusion that we will pass the constitutional amendment to make provision for state police, and this will come to fruition this week,” Bamidele said.
He disclosed that consultations had involved the National Assembly leadership, the Attorney-General of the Federation, the Chief of Staff to the President, the Inspector-General of Police and other critical stakeholders.
The Senate Leader also revealed that President Bola Tinubu and a majority of state governors support the proposal, expressing confidence that the required approval from two-thirds of state assemblies would be secured.
On the controversy surrounding calls for a probe into military spending amid rising insecurity, Bamidele defended the Senate’s decision to reject the motion, insisting that placing the armed forces under public scrutiny while they are actively engaged in counter-terrorism operations would be counterproductive.
He said the military was confronting an unconventional enemy and had continued to make sacrifices in the fight against terrorism despite difficult circumstances.
“We cannot put our military on trial in the middle of a war. Accountability mechanisms already exist through the Senate Committees on Defence, Army, Navy and Air Force, which carry out oversight responsibilities,” he stated.
Bamidele argued that significant progress was being made against insurgents, adding that recent attacks by terrorists reflected desperation arising from heavy losses suffered during military operations.
The Senate Leader also dismissed claims that the 10th National Assembly had become a “rubber stamp” of the Executive, saying lawmakers had consistently engaged the Presidency behind closed doors to resolve disagreements before bills reached the floor.
According to him, constructive collaboration between the legislature and the executive should not be mistaken for weakness.
“We are not a rubber stamp Senate. We simply chose to resolve disagreements privately rather than perform them publicly,” he said.
On electoral reforms, Bamidele maintained that the Electoral Act should not be amended in the heat of political contests, stressing that any review should take place after elections and without retroactive effect.
He also reaffirmed his support for the publication of legislators’ salaries and allowances, saying greater transparency would help dispel public misconceptions about lawmakers’ earnings and benefits.
Regarding anti-kidnapping legislation, Bamidele disclosed that the proposed Anti-Terrorism Bill and measures prescribing the death penalty for convicted kidnappers remain on course and would be concluded alongside related constitutional amendments.
Reflecting on the performance of the 10th Senate, he identified the controversy surrounding the suspension of a senator and allegations of gender insensitivity as one of the institution’s lowest moments.
However, he highlighted several legislative achievements, including tax reforms, the student loan scheme, and the establishment of new federal tertiary institutions across the country.
Bamidele expressed optimism that the Senate’s reforms, particularly the state police initiative and tax legislation, would strengthen national security, deepen democratic governance and provide long-term economic benefits for Nigerians.
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