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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga

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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.

According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.

To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.

The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.

As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.

President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.

President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.

He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.

The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.

In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.

The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.

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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.

The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.

In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.

An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.

The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.

Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.

As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.

President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.

Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.

*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu

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2027: Tinubu Dares Obi, Atiku to Showcase Their Achievements in Office, Accuses Them of Abandoning Their Responsibilities

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President Bola Tinubu has criticised former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar over their political affiliations, questioning their leadership credentials ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Tinubu made the remarks on Friday during his visit to Akwa Ibom State, where he inaugurated projects executed by Governor Umo Eno’s administration and addressed supporters at a political gathering.

Although he did not mention either politician by name, he appeared to refer to Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, and Atiku, who joined the African Democratic Congress after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party.

Referring to Obi’s tenure as Anambra governor, Tinubu accused him of failing to tackle erosion in the state, contrasting it with his own claim of confronting the Atlantic Ocean during his administration as Lagos governor.

“One, who said he is in one party they call NDC, who is running for president. He ran away from erosion. In Anambra State, he could not confront erosion.

“I, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, I confronted the Atlantic Ocean. I claim it for you. Umo Eno confronted the erosion in Akwa Ibom and is working for, he is stable,” the President said.

Tinubu also questioned the political loyalty of a former PDP member who moved to another party, in an apparent reference to Atiku’s defection to the ADC.

“If a man that was, once upon a time, was a baby of PDP, became a father of PDP. And because of a little inconvenience, he ran away from that party. And formed a dangerous ADC in another party. Is that a leadership trait? Is that a leadership character? And he wants you to vote for him?” he said.

Obi governed Anambra State between 2006 and 2014, while Atiku served as Nigeria’s Vice-President from 1999 to 2007 under the PDP.

Atiku contested the 2023 presidential election on the PDP platform, finishing second behind Tinubu, while Obi, who contested under the Labour Party, came third.

Obi left the Labour Party for the NDC in May 2026, while Atiku joined the ADC as part of opposition efforts ahead of the 2027 election.

Tinubu’s reference to Anambra’s erosion problem recalls his 2023 presidential campaign promise to tackle the menace in the state.

During a campaign rally in Awka in February 2023, the then APC presidential candidate promised to address gully erosion in Anambra, saying he would handle it in the same way he claimed to have tackled the Atlantic Ocean surge in Lagos.

“I have come here to promise you development. We will industrialise Nigeria and Anambra State. You know me, I am the city boy of Lagos; I caged the Atlantic Ocean in Lagos; the way I handled the Atlantic Ocean in Lagos, I will handle the erosion menace in Anambra State,” he said at the time.

 

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Ibom Deep Seaport Gets Presidential Approval as Tinubu Backs Project

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the long-awaited Ibom Deep Seaport project in Akwa Ibom State.

Tinubu announced the approval on Friday while responding to a request by Governor Umo Eno during a reception and rally held in his honour at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo.

The President, who was in the state to inaugurate projects executed by the Eno administration, said the development must promote inclusive growth, create economic value and bring progress to the people.

“Now, development must be even inclusive and reasonable, must bring progress and create economic value. I heard from my friend, my governor, my pastor, on behalf of the people and leadership of Akwa Ibom, request for Ibom’s deep-sea port,” Tinubu said.

After repeating the request, the President asked the crowd, “Will you vote?”

He subsequently declared, “Okay, It’s approved.”

The approval followed a pledge by Eno that Akwa Ibom would deliver two million votes for Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 if the Federal Government delivered the seaport.

“Give us Ibom Deep Seaport, we will deliver two million votes. This deep seaport is capable of unlocking the economy of the state, the South-South region and Nigeria at large,” the governor said.

Eno described the seaport as the most important economic demand of the people of Akwa Ibom, saying it would transform the state’s maritime, industrial and employment landscape.

He said the people of the state had remained loyal to Tinubu since 2023 and were asking him to fulfil his promise to build the facility.

Tinubu had, during his 2023 presidential campaign rally at the same stadium, promised to build the deep seaport, citing the Lekki Deep Seaport, developed during his tenure as Lagos State governor, as an example of what he hoped to achieve in Akwa Ibom.

Eno said the project, conceived during the administration of former Governor Victor Attah as the Ibaka Deep Seaport and Industrial City, had remained unrealised for decades despite featuring in successive presidential campaigns.

“This seaport would serve as a major transhipment hub. It will create thousands of jobs for our people. It will open Akwa Ibom to international trade and investment,” he said.

The governor also said Akwa Ibom had aligned with the Federal Government by joining the All Progressives Congress to attract greater federal presence and development.

He assured Tinubu that the state would mobilise support for his re-election in 2027, saying the seaport would be a major dividend of his administration.

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JUST IN: Court Nullifies Atiku’s Candidacy, Sacks Mark-Led ADC NWC Ahead of 2027 Elections

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*Says ADC’s leadership that produced him, other candidates illegal

A Federal High Court in Abuja has nullified the process that led to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s emergence as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate for next year’s presidential election. FollowPolitics

In a judgment on Thursday, Justice Peter Lifu also voided the emergence of former Senate President David Mark, ex-Governor of Osun State Rauf Aregbesola, and others as ADC national officers.

Justice Lifu also voided the nominations of all ADC candidates for the 2027 general elections, holding that they emerged from the ADC’s illegal and unlawful leadership.

The judgment was delivered in a suit brought by an aggrieved ADC Deputy National Chairman, Nafiu Bala Gombe.

The judge upheld Gombe’s contention that David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola emerged as party leaders through an unlawful and illegal process.

Justice Lifu set aside all actions taken by the Mark-led leadership in the name of ADC, holding that they were unlawful.

Details shortly…

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