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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga
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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.
According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.
To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.
The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.
As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.
President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.
President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.
He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.
The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.
In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.
The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.
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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.
The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.
In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.
An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.
The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.
Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.
As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.
President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.
Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.
*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu
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Hon. Marcus Adedini Joins 2027 Ife Federal Constituency Race, Promises People-Centered Leadership
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……Engr. Adedini Declares for 2027 Reps Race, Picks Nomination Forms
Engr. Marcus Adedini has officially declared his intention to contest the House of Representatives seat for Ife Federal Constituency in the 2027 general elections, following the purchase of his nomination and expression of interest forms.
His declaration marks his formal entry into the race and reflects what he described as a long-standing commitment to public service, grassroots development, and policy-driven leadership across Ife land.
A development advocate and grassroots mobiliser, Adedini brings years of community engagement and policy experience to his ambition. Through his initiative, he has spearheaded several community-based interventions spanning education, healthcare, youth empowerment, and social welfare.
In the education sector, his programmes have supported students with scholarships, learning materials, and infrastructure development. In healthcare, he has facilitated medical outreach initiatives aimed at improving access to services and raising community health awareness.
Adedini has also implemented youth empowerment schemes, equipping young people with vocational skills, startup support, and capacity-building opportunities to promote entrepreneurship and reduce unemployment. His efforts extend to women and vulnerable groups through targeted empowerment programmes designed to improve livelihoods.
Beyond grassroots initiatives, Adedini has gained legislative exposure, contributing to the drafting of bills and motions in key sectors, including education, healthcare, and social development. Supporters say his experience in budgeting and project facilitation positions him to attract federal projects to the constituency.
Calling for support, Adedini urged residents of Ife Federal Constituency to rally behind what he described as a shared vision of inclusive growth and sustainable development.
He pledged to run a people-focused and issue-based campaign, promising effective representation and impactful service if elected.
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FEC Backs $2.99bn Rail Projects, Sets Stage for Power Sector Shake-Up
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… Lagos Green Line, Kano, Kaduna rail schemes to boost connectivity
… Tinubu to chair power sector task force as reforms gather pace
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) on Thursday approved a $2.99 billion package of rail infrastructure projects and the establishment of a Presidential Task Force on Power Sector Reform, in a move signalling a renewed push by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to deepen infrastructure development and unlock economic growth.
Briefing State House correspondents after the Council meeting, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the rail projects span key urban corridors and are designed to enhance mobility, reduce congestion, and stimulate regional commerce.
He listed the projects as the Lagos Green Line Rail, the Kano State Metro Rail, and the Kaduna State Rail project, noting that they have already been captured in the extended 2025 budget.
“The Federal Executive Council approved three transformative rail projects – Lagos Green Line, Kano State Metro Rail, and Kaduna State Rail project. These projects are to be sponsored by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated,” Oyedele said.
He explained that the approvals align with the administration’s broader infrastructure strategy, which prioritises rail transport as a cost-effective and sustainable alternative to road networks.
The Lagos Green Line is expected to complement existing mass transit systems in the commercial hub, while the Kano and Kaduna rail schemes are projected to boost passenger and freight movement across northern Nigeria, improving trade and economic activity.
In a related development, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, announced the creation of a Presidential Task Force on Power Sector Reform, alongside key appointments aimed at strengthening governance in the electricity industry.
Idris said the Council approved the appointment of former Minister of Power, Lanre Babalola, as Special Adviser on Power to the President, to enhance coordination and policy oversight.
He disclosed that the President would chair the task force, with Babalola playing a central role in driving its activities.
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“The task force is part of renewed efforts by the administration to reposition the power sector as a critical driver of industrialisation and economic growth,” Idris said.
According to him, the decision followed the submission of a report by a presidential committee set up on March 4 to review the commercial and institutional framework for the proposed Grid Asset Management Company (GAMCO).
He noted that the task force brings together key stakeholders, including the Ministers of Finance, Power, Industry, Trade and Investment, Information, and the Attorney-General of the Federation, alongside regulators and representatives of electricity generation and distribution companies.
Idris said the body would focus on implementing far-reaching reforms to address structural bottlenecks in the sector, stressing that stable electricity supply remains central to Nigeria’s economic transformation.
He added that the government is committed to a comprehensive overhaul of the power sector to unlock industrial productivity and improve living standards.
The minister further disclosed that the FEC meeting was preceded by the swearing-in of a National Commissioner of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and four Permanent Secretaries.
He said President Tinubu administered the oath of office on retired Rear Admiral K. M. Marafa as INEC National Commissioner following her confirmation by the National Assembly.
Idris added that the Council deliberated on a 32-point agenda, reflecting what he described as the administration’s broad reform focus across critical sectors of the economy.
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Tinubu Fires Back at Critics: Exploiting Insecurity Won’t Stop My Second Term
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…directs action against sponsors of violence, backs Plateau peace committee
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Tuesday night declared that attempts by his political opponents to exploit insecurity to force him out of office would fail, insisting that he would not only remain in office but also seek a second term.
Speaking at the State House, Abuja, while receiving stakeholders from Plateau State, led by Governor Caleb Mutfwang, the President described himself as resolute in the face of political pressure.
“You are playing to the hand of agents, including my own enemies, who want to use insecurity to get rid of me. But I’m a very stubborn politician. I just refuse to go. And I will campaign for my second term,” Tinubu said.
The President warned that the Federal Government would move decisively against individuals found to be instigating or financing violence across the country, stressing that credible intelligence would be acted upon without delay.
“If you identify and you know the name of troublemakers, agents provocateur, who want to continue killing or instigate killing, let us know. We will use the instrument of office to deal with them,” he said.
Tinubu emphasised that security agencies stand ready to confront such threats once actionable information is provided, noting that the recurring cycle of violence must end.
In a move to strengthen peace efforts in Plateau State, the President also endorsed a newly constituted peace committee comprising former governors of the state, charging them to work collectively toward lasting solutions.
He directed the committee to review existing white papers on past conflicts and harmonise recommendations for implementation.
“Call one another. Ignore the Governor’s Committee if you have to, or incorporate them. Take that white paper, go through it among yourselves and agree to implement it.
“If the ones you have chosen before now are not working, you have to mix and amend membership. Forget those committees you mentioned to me, if it’s not working, it’s not working. Consider this group as the committee until we find a lasting solution,” the President said.
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