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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga
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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.
According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.
To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.
The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.
As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.
President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.
President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.
He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.
The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.
In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.
The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.
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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.
The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.
In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.
An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.
The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.
Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.
As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.
President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.
Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.
*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu
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National Policing Bill Set for Seven-Week Implementation Plan, Says Gbajabiamila
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•Working group opens portal for public input • ‘It is Tinubu’s most consequential reforms’
The process leading to the creation of state police has been fast-tracked.
A seven-week roadmap for the National Policing Bill commenced on July 27 and is expected to be completed on September 14.
Chairman of the Presidential Working Group on the National Policing Bill, Mr Femi Gbajabiamila, unveiled the action plan yesterday after the group’s meeting.
He said the seven-week work programme would proceed through simultaneous legal drafting, policy research, data analysis and implementation modelling.
Gbajabiamila added that the final submission would include schedules, an explanatory memorandum, a legal audit, a consequential amendments matrix, clause-by-clause analysis, a state readiness framework, fiscal and implementation notes, a validation report, a risk register and a digital archive.
The Chief of Staff reiterated the Federal Government’s commitment to decentralised policing that would not undermine national unity or the rule of law.
He said: “State police cannot mean 36 state militias,” adding that while states must have a legitimate role in public safety, “no political office holder should be able to direct the arrest of an opponent, the suppression of lawful political activity, or the selective enforcement of the law.”
Gbajabiamila explained that federal intervention would remain “exceptional, evidence-based, proportionate, time-limited and reviewable”, while officers would remain accountable to the Constitution rather than political interests.
He said no state would be permitted to commence policing operations until it demonstrated readiness in recruitment, training, equipment, pensions, complaints handling, financial sustainability, firearms control and independent oversight.
Gbajabiamila added: “Operational commencement must be based on readiness, not announcement. Although states could exceed national benchmarks, no Nigerian should receive a lower standard of protection because of where they reside.”
To encourage public participation, the Chief of Staff called for memoranda and position papers from Nigerians, civil society organisations, professional bodies, security institutions and other stakeholders.
He said a dedicated portal, nationalpolicingbill.com, had gone live to receive submissions, with plans to migrate it to a government domain.
On the financial implications of the reform, Gbajabiamila said it was premature to estimate the cost, noting that expenditure would be determined through empirical research conducted on a state-by-state basis.
He dismissed fears that some states might lack the capacity to establish police services.
However, Gbajabiamila explained that where a state is genuinely unable to meet the prescribed standards, the Nigeria Police Force would continue to provide policing services until the state becomes operational.
Gbajabiamila said the committee is expected to submit an Executive Bill to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on September 3.
He said the package would go beyond draft legislation, adding that it would also provide the implementation blueprint required to operationalise a dual federal-state policing architecture once the constitutional amendment creating state police comes into force.
Hailing the initiative, Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun described the National Policing Bill as one of President Tinubu’s most consequential reforms.
Also assuring Nigerians of the prospects of the initiative, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), said the enforcement of national standards would prevent abuse of state police and protect citizens.
Explaining further, Gbajabiamila said that following the completion of the draft, nationwide consultations would be held before the President grants final approval, after which the executive bill would be transmitted to the National Assembly.
He said: “The resulting draft executive bill package is scheduled for presentation to the President on the 3rd of September.
“We have tweaked the process so that the national consultation will come before the President’s final approval, after which the text and supporting materials will be revised and prepared for formal transmission to the National Assembly.”
He stressed that despite the progress made by the National Assembly, no state police service currently exists in Nigeria because the constitutional amendment has not yet secured the approval of the required number of state Houses of Assembly.
He said that while the constitutional amendment would create the legal authority for state policing, it would not by itself resolve critical operational issues such as recruitment, training, funding, command structures, jurisdiction, pensions, firearms regulation, data management, complaints mechanisms and inter-agency cooperation.
Gbajabiamila explained that those issues would be addressed in the National Policing Bill and other consequential legislation being prepared by the working group.
Gbajabiamila said the assignment also includes a review of the Police Act 2020, the Police Service Commission framework, police regulations and other laws affected by the reform, alongside provisions for minimum national policing standards, state certification, interstate cooperation, independent complaints institutions, human rights safeguards, forensic systems, funding arrangements and transition plans.
He said President Tinubu had approved a multidisciplinary Policy Advisory Committee, chaired by Justice Mohammed Abdullahi Liman, to provide technical oversight and validate the bill, fiscal framework and implementation materials before executive consideration.
He said the committee would draw its membership from the judiciary, academia, security agencies, the National Assembly, the Office of the National Security Adviser, the Nigeria Police Force, the Nigerian Bar Association, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum and state Attorneys-General representing the six geopolitical zones. NigerianBusiness Coverage
Abiodun described the National Policing Bill as one of the most consequential reforms of the Tinubu administration, saying the legislation would provide the legal and operational framework needed to translate the constitutional amendment into a workable policing system.
Abiodun, who represents the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) on the Presidential Working Group on the National Policing Bill, told reporters that the bill would address critical issues, including the jurisdiction of federal and state police, funding arrangements, recruitment, start-up grants for states and amendments to existing laws affected by the reform.
He noted that many Nigerians had assumed that states would immediately establish police services once the National Assembly approved the constitutional amendment, explaining that the current assignment of the working group is to produce the detailed implementation framework that would make the reform operational. NigerianBusiness Coverage
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Abiodun said: “What we’ve seen and witnessed is the amendment of the Constitution, and we’ve seen a groundswell of support by the entirety of Nigerians with a very high level of expectation that once the amendment was completed by the National Assembly, the next thing is for states to begin to implement their various state policing systems.
“The truth is that what this working group is working on is what would allow for the details of that implementation, which will be reflected in the bill.”
Abiodun dismissed insinuations that the Federal Government was attempting to retain control over state policing through the proposed legislation, insisting that the bill was intended only to translate the constitutional amendment into an effective and workable legal framework.
He said: “Someone has to be responsible for ensuring that the amendment now reflects in a bill that can be operated, and that’s what we’re working on.”
The governor explained that the legislation would also make consequential amendments to other existing laws, including the Firearms Act, while clearly defining the responsibilities of both federal and state police services.
He urged Nigerians to actively participate in shaping the proposed legislation through the newly launched public engagement portal, nationalpolicingbill.com, describing it as an interactive platform designed to give citizens a sense of ownership of the reform. NigerianBusiness Coverage
Fagbemi said the primary objective of the proposed legislation was to strengthen the protection of lives and property while ensuring that state police never become instruments of political persecution.
He explained that where any state is not yet prepared to establish its own police service, the Nigeria Police Force would continue to provide policing until such capacity is developed.
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Fagbemi said: “Law abhors a vacuum, so the federal presence will continue to dominate in that area.”
The minister defended the proposed minimum national policing standards, saying they were essential to guarantee equal protection for Nigerians irrespective of where they reside. NigerianBusiness Coverage
He said: “The main thrust of this bill is to ensure security of lives and property, and it is also important that we do not make state policing a weapon of political persecution or oppression.
“There must be standards. There must be the minimum threshold to guarantee the continued existence and operation of society.”
The minister said the standards would be aligned with globally recognised policing practices, assuring that officers moving between the federal and state police services would not lose their benefits.
Other members of the Presidential Working Group at the briefing included the Inspector-General of Police, Tunji Disu; NBA President Afam Osigwe (SAN); Chairman of the Policy Advisory Committee, Justice Abdullahi Liman; and Senior Special Assistant to the President on Planning and Research, Nnadubem Moghalu.
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REA Targets 3.7GW Solar Manufacturing to Bridge Nigeria’s Power Deficit
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The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) has unveiled plans to establish 3.7 gigawatts (GW) of local solar photovoltaic (PV) panel manufacturing capacity by the end of 2027 as Nigeria intensifies efforts to expand electricity access and reduce dependence on imported renewable energy equipment.
Managing Director of the agency, Engr. Abba Aliyu, disclosed the initiative in Abuja during a benchmarking visit by officials of the Zanzibar Utilities Regulatory Authority (ZURA).
He said the agency is encouraging Chinese solar manufacturers to establish production facilities in Nigeria, noting that locally assembled solar panels are already being exported from Lagos to neighbouring Ghana.
According to him, the planned manufacturing expansion will significantly reduce imports while strengthening Nigeria’s renewable energy value chain. Aliyu attributed the rapid global growth of renewable energy to falling prices of solar panels and lithium batteries, saying technological innovation has made off-grid electricity the most cost-effective solution for millions of underserved communities.
He said Nigeria’s electricity access rate currently stands at 61.2 per cent, leaving about 80 million people without reliable power supply.
To address the challenge, REA has adopted a least-cost electrification strategy that determines the most suitable technology for each community rather than relying solely on national grid expansion.
The agency has mapped more than 700,000 communities nationwide, with plans to serve about 45 per cent through solar home systems, 31 per cent through mini-grids and the remaining 24 per cent through grid extension.
Aliyu added that REA has developed one of Africa’s most extensive geospatial electricity databases, covering more than 51,000 health facilities, 11,000 markets, thousands of schools, factories, dams, electricity feeders and existing mini-grids to support investment planning.
He noted that the agency’s interventions also target underserved communities receiving less than six hours of electricity daily. The REA boss warned that electricity demand would continue to rise sharply as Nigeria’s population grows, more sectors become electrified and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and data centres consume increasing amounts of power.
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Budget Office Explains PFIPC Allocation, Says Agency Emerged During Buhari Administration
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•Explains how PFIPC was allocated money in the budget.
The Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) yesterday explained that the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council (PFIPC), which the presidency declared as fake and is currently being investigated by the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission, ICPC, had its origin in the last administration of late President Muhammadu Buhari.
The Director-General of the Budget Office, Mr. Tanimu Yakubu who provided the explanation in a statement, after appearing before members of the House of Representatives, in Abuja said the PFIPC’s institutional origin was premised on the Presidential Economic Advisory Council inaugurated by President Muhammadu Buhari on October 9, 2019. He also explained how the fake agency was allocated money in the 2026 budget.
His words, “PEAC/PFIPC did not enter the 2026 Budget merely because it asked for funds. The Council had its origin in the Presidential Economic Advisory Council inaugurated during the administration of the late President Muhammadu Buhari on October 9, 2019. By the time preparation of the 2026 Budget began, official instruments had already been issued by the institutions charged with those functions.
“The Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation had assigned an administrative code to the PFIPC. The Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation had approved an authorised establishment and a recruitment waiver. The applicable public-service salary structure also existed. These instruments did not come from the Budget Office. They came to it.
“The Budget Office did not create the Council. It did not assign its code. It did not approve its establishment. It did not grant its recruitment waiver. It received official instruments and did what the law required of it: it measured their fiscal effect.”
Mr. Tanimu further explained that the Council submitted a personnel estimate of N3.850 billion for the 2026 Fiscal Year and that his Office had to reduce that figure to N802.978 million, using the authorised establishment, the approved recruitment waiver, the applicable public-service salary structure and the extant costing methodology
According to the D-G, “Council later submitted a personnel estimate of N3,850,935,000.00. That estimate did not form the basis of the Budget Office’s recommendation. The Budget Office disregarded it and made an independent calculation using only the authorised establishment, the approved recruitment waiver, the applicable public-service salary structure and the extant costing methodology.
“That calculation produced N802,978,783.00. This was not a concession to the Council. It was the Budget Office’s own fiscal judgment. It was the amount placed in the Executive Budget proposal and later appropriated.
Mr Yakubu said that the Council could not receive the approved funds for personnel because its promoter, Prince Adeyemi Adeniyi could not secure Financial Clearance, an instrument that confirms that necessary fiscal and regulatory had been met.
He said, “Financial Clearance is the point at which a personnel provision may begin to acquire legal force as expenditure. It is not a routine letter. It is the confirmation that the fiscal and regulatory conditions for recruitment have been met. Until it is issued, the figure remains in the budget. It does not create staff. It does not open payroll. It does not produce salary. The Budget Office did not issue Financial Clearance for PEAC/PFIPC because the conditions were incomplete.
“The 2026 Appropriation Bill did not become law until Presidential Assent on 31 March 2026. Before that date, the Budget Office could cost the proposal. It could not grant final Financial Clearance against a bill that had not yet become law.
“After assent, a further condition remained outstanding. The National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission had not confirmed that the proposed staffing and remuneration arrangements complied with its prescribed template and the approved public-service compensation framework.
“The Budget Office could calculate the cost. It could not open the gate. There was therefore no Financial Clearance. There was no lawful recruitment. There was no payroll enrollment. There was no salary payment.”
The D-G added, “The personnel provision was N802,978,783.00. It represented 61.63 per cent of the total appropriation of N1,302,978,783.00. It has sometimes been described as though the Council could have received the whole amount and spent it at will. That description is false.
“Personnel appropriations are not paid to agencies as lump sums. After every legal condition has been met, salaries are paid month by month. The money moves electronically into the designated bank accounts of verified employees enrolled on the Federal Government payroll.
“The institution does not receive the annual personnel provision as cash under its control. Even in a lawful process, the Council would not have received N802,978,783.00 in one payment. The money would have gone over twelve months to individual employees. That process never began. No Financial Clearance was issued. No recruitment took place. No payroll record was created. No salary became due. Not one kobo of the personnel provision could lawfully have been drawn. Not one kobo was drawn. There is no personnel expenditure to recover because there was no personnel expenditure.”
The PFIPC controversy became public on June 11, 2026, when the Chief of Staff to the president, Mr Femi Gbajabiamila, declared the Council as fake and petitioned the law enforcement agencies.
However, at a press conference on June 26, the Director General of the PFIPC, Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi faulted the presidency’s disclaimer. He alleged that Gbajabiamila received N400 million through a proxy and demanded an additional N200 million to secure his appointment — an allegation which the Chief of Staff denied and has sued him to court claiming N15b as damages for defamation. Adeyemi is currently in custody after he was arrested by the police in connection with the PFIPC scandal and alleged forgery.
Before his arrest, Adeyemi claimed he personally approached officials of the budget office to seek the inclusion of the Council in the federal government’s budget.
Recently, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confirmed that it opened two domiciliary accounts linked to the PFIPC on the directive of the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF).
The apex bank, however, said the accounts, one denominated in United States dollars and the other in British pounds sterling, were never funded or operated.
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