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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga
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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.
According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.
To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.
The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.
As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.
President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.
President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.
He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.
The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.
In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.
The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.
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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.
The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.
In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.
An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.
The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.
Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.
As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.
President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.
Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.
*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu
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Rebuilding the North-East: Inside Nigeria’s Largest Post-Conflict Recovery Experiment
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How the NEDC is attempting to turn years of devastation into a pathway for long-term development
By Michael Olukayode
For more than a decade, Nigeria’s North-East has remained a symbol of prolonged conflict and humanitarian collapse. The insurgency led by Boko Haram and its breakaway factions did far more than disrupt security—it dismantled entire communities, shattered economic systems, and altered the social and cultural foundations of a region once anchored by farming and cross-border trade.
The human cost has been staggering. More than 350,000 people are estimated to have died directly and indirectly from the conflict. Over 2.5 million individuals were forced from their homes, while at the height of the crisis, about 8.4 million people required urgent humanitarian support. Entire settlements across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe were destroyed, leaving behind a region marked by displacement and ruin.
A System Built from Collapse
The scale of destruction prompted the establishment of the North-East Development Commission (NEDC) in 2017 under former President Muhammadu Buhari. It was created not simply as a relief agency, but as a long-term institutional response to structural breakdown across an entire region.
Early post-conflict assessments placed the cost of destruction at over $9 billion. Infrastructure losses were extensive: thousands of homes were destroyed, more than 1,400 schools were damaged or completely wiped out, and in some areas over 70 percent of health facilities became unusable. The agricultural sector—long the backbone of the regional economy—collapsed almost entirely, deepening poverty and food insecurity.
To coordinate recovery, the Commission was tasked with implementing the North-East Stabilisation and Development Master Plan (NESDMP), a blueprint designed to move the region from emergency humanitarian response into structured reconstruction and sustainable development.
From Emergency Response to Large-Scale Reconstruction
Since beginning operations, the NEDC has implemented interventions worth hundreds of billions of naira, funded through federal allocations and supported by development partners.
Its activities span all six states of the region—Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, and Taraba—where thousands of projects have either been completed or are ongoing.
Across its portfolio, the Commission has:
• Built and rehabilitated thousands of housing units for displaced families
• Executed more than 1,000 infrastructure projects, including roads, schools, and healthcare centres
• Distributed millions of relief items during peak humanitarian emergencies
• Supported agricultural programmes reaching hundreds of thousands of farmers
The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Commission, Mohammed Goni Alkali, explained that the institution is now deliberately evolving its focus.
“We are transitioning from humanitarian interventions to sustainable development,” he said. “The priority is building systems that can endure beyond immediate recovery.”
He added that reconstruction must be understood beyond physical structures.
“It is not only about rebuilding infrastructure. It is about restoring livelihoods, rebuilding institutions, and restoring hope to communities,” Alkali said.
Gradual Return to Normalcy Across Communities
On the ground, signs of recovery are beginning to emerge across the region, though unevenly.
Large numbers of internally displaced persons have started returning to reconstructed communities, easing long-standing pressure on overcrowded camps. Schools that were destroyed or abandoned during the peak of the insurgency are being rehabilitated and reopened, restoring access to education for thousands of children.
Healthcare delivery has also improved, with rebuilt and newly equipped facilities expanding access, particularly in rural areas that were previously cut off. Road reconstruction projects are reconnecting isolated communities, improving movement, trade, and access to services.
The Governor of Borno State, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, acknowledged the role of the Commission in supporting recovery efforts.
“The NEDC has played a critical role in supporting the rebuilding of communities and restoring hope to our people,” he said.
Restoring the Economic Lifeline
Before the insurgency, agriculture was the dominant economic activity in the North-East, employing a large portion of the population. The conflict disrupted farming cycles, displaced rural communities, and left vast tracts of farmland abandoned.
Recovery efforts are now focusing on reversing that collapse. Through the distribution of seeds, fertilisers, and farming equipment, as well as investments in irrigation and dry-season farming, agricultural production is gradually resuming. Small businesses and cooperatives are also receiving support to stimulate local economies.
According to Alkali, economic recovery remains central to the Commission’s strategy.
“Without livelihoods, recovery cannot be sustained,” he said. “Economic empowerment is therefore at the core of our interventions.”
Moving Away from Long-Term Aid Dependence
One of the most significant shifts emerging in the region is the gradual transition from humanitarian dependency to self-reliance.
Although millions of people still require assistance, returning communities are increasingly rebuilding their own economic and social systems as stability improves.
Former United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Matthias Schmale, noted that recovery efforts are beginning to produce measurable improvements.
“There is clear evidence that living conditions are improving and that basic services are being restored,” he said.
Security Gains and Lingering Vulnerability
Despite notable progress in stabilisation, the North-East remains fragile. Military operations have significantly degraded insurgent capabilities, but sporadic attacks continue in some areas.
The Chairman of the Governing Board of the NEDC, Major General Paul Tarfa (rtd.), stressed that development must consolidate security achievements.
“Security gains must be reinforced with development initiatives. Only then can we achieve lasting peace,” he said.
Persistent Gaps in the Recovery Process
Even with extensive interventions, major challenges remain. Millions of residents are still dependent on humanitarian assistance, unemployment among young people remains high, and environmental pressures—including climate-related shocks—continue to threaten agricultural recovery.
In addition, funding limitations remain a key constraint, with the scale of needs far exceeding available resources.
The Managing Director acknowledged these gaps but reaffirmed the Commission’s commitment.
“The level of devastation is enormous, but we are committed to working with all stakeholders to deliver sustainable recovery,” Alkali said.
A Region Still in Transition
The North-East today exists in a complex state between crisis and recovery. It remains one of Nigeria’s most vulnerable regions, but also one of its most ambitious reconstruction theatres.
What is unfolding is a slow transformation: from destruction to rebuilding, from dependency to resilience, and from emergency survival to structured development.
Former United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Matthias Schmale, noted that recovery efforts are beginning to produce measurable improvements.
“There is clear evidence that living conditions are improving and that basic services are being restored,” he said.
Observing during his tenure in the country that: “The transition is visible, but sustaining it will require long-term investment and strong collaboration.”
Conclusion: Beyond Reconstruction
The work of the North-East Development Commission goes beyond rebuilding damaged infrastructure. It represents an attempt to reimagine post-conflict recovery at scale—linking humanitarian relief with long-term development planning.
From housing and healthcare to education and livelihoods, the foundations of a new regional reality are gradually taking shape.
Yet, as stakeholders consistently emphasise, the true measure of success will not be the number of projects completed, but whether the region can sustain stability, dignity, and opportunity over time.
In the North-East, the story of recovery is no longer only about survival.
It is about building a future that once seemed impossible—and ensuring it endures.
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Breaking : Tinubu Appoints Oyedele as Finance Minister in Cabinet Shake-Up
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…Edun, Dangiwa exit FEC
…Darma named Housing minister-designate
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved a minor cabinet reshuffle, effecting changes in the membership of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) with the exit of two ministers and the appointment of replacements.
The decision, conveyed in a memo signed by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, directed the immediate redeployment of portfolios to strengthen governance delivery.
According to a statement issued by Special Adviser to the SGF on Media and Publicity, Yomi Odunuga, Mr. Wale Edun has been relieved of his duties as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy under the reshuffle.
He is to hand over to Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, who has now been elevated to the position from his previous role as Minister of State in the ministry.
Similarly, the Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Arc. Ahmed Musa Dangiwa, is to exit the cabinet, with the President naming Dr. Muttaqha Rabe Darma as ministerial nominee and minister-designate for the ministry.
The directive also mandates that Dangiwa hand over to the Minister of State in the ministry, pending Darma’s confirmation and assumption of office.
According to the memo, all handover and takeover processes are to be completed by close of business on Thursday, April 23, 2026.
Explaining the rationale for the changes, Akume said the reshuffle was designed to “strengthen cohesion, synergy in governance as well as achieve more impactful delivery on the economy to Nigerians, through the Renewed Hope Agenda.”
He added that the President exercised his constitutional powers under Sections 147 and 148 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) in effecting the changes.
The President expressed appreciation to the outgoing ministers for their service to the nation and wished them success in their future endeavours.
Akume further conveyed the President’s assurance to cabinet members that the process of reinvigorating the government would be continuous and in line with the administration’s policy objectives.
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JUST IN: Federal Government Arraigns Suspected Coup Plotters on 13 Charges
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The Federal Government has filed a 13-count charge before the Federal High Court in Abuja against six individuals, including two retired senior military officers and a serving police inspector, over an alleged plot to wage war against Nigeria and commit acts of terrorism.
The defendants—retired Major General Mohammed Gana, retired Naval Captain Erasmus Victor, Inspector Ahmed Ibrahim, Zekeri Umoru, Bukar Goni, and Abdulkadir Sani—are scheduled to be arraigned on Wednesday, April 22, before Justice Joyce Abdulmalik.
Also listed in the charge, but said to be at large, is a former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva.
The charge, filed on Monday by the Office of the Attorney-General of the Federation and signed by the Director of Public Prosecutions, Rotimi Oyedepo (SAN), accuses the defendants of offences ranging from treason and terrorism to failure to disclose security intelligence and money laundering linked to terrorism financing.
The prosecution alleged that the defendants conspired in 2025 “to levy war against the state to overpower the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” an offence punishable under Section 37(2) of the Criminal Code.
The Federal Government further alleged that the defendants had prior knowledge of a planned treasonable act involving one Colonel Mohammed Alhassan Ma’aji and others but failed to alert authorities.
According to the charge, the defendants, “knowing that a treasonable act was intended to be committed, did not give information thereof with all reasonable despatch to either the President… or a peace officer.”
They were also accused of failing to take preventive steps, as the charge stated that they “did not use any reasonable endeavours to prevent the commission of the offence.”
Beyond treason, the defendants are facing terrorism-related charges under the Terrorism (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022. Prosecutors alleged that they “conspired with one another to commit an act of terrorism in the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”
Inspector Ahmed Ibrahim and Zekeri Umoru were specifically accused of attending meetings linked to the alleged plot, “in a bid to further a political ideology which may seriously destabilise the constitutional structure of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”
The charge also accused the defendants of providing support for terrorism, alleging that they “knowingly and indirectly rendered support” to facilitate acts of terror.
In addition, the prosecution alleged deliberate suppression of intelligence, stating that the defendants “had information which would be of material assistance in preventing the commission of the act of terrorism, but failed to disclose the information to the relevant agency as soon as practicable.”
On the financial aspect, several defendants were accused of handling funds linked to terrorism financing, in violation of the Money Laundering (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022.
“indirectly retained the aggregate sum of N50,000,000, which forms part of the proceeds of an unlawful act, to wit: terrorism financing,” while Abdulkadir Sani allegedly retained N2m from a similar source.
Zekeri Umoru, according to the charge, “without going through a financial institution accepted a cash payment of the sum of N10,000,000,” and also retained an additional N8.8m suspected to be proceeds of terrorism financing.
Inspector Ahmed Ibrahim was also accused of taking possession of “the sum of N1,000,000, being part of proceeds of terrorism financing.”
The case is expected to test the Federal Government’s resolve to prosecute alleged threats to national security as proceedings commence before the Federal High Court in Abuja.
In October 2025, the Federal Government announced the cancellation of a ceremonial parade earlier scheduled to mark Nigeria’s 65th Independence Anniversary on October 1.
Days after the announcement, reports emerged linking the cancellation to an alleged coup plot. However, the Defence Headquarters dismissed the claims, insisting that the decision had no connection with any coup attempt.
Later that month, on October 31, authorities confirmed that 16 military officers had been arrested in the first week of October over the alleged plot, while two others were declared at large.
In January 2026, the Defence Headquarters confirmed that there was indeed a plan to overthrow President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The Director of Defence Information, Samaila Uba, said investigations carried out in line with military procedures uncovered the involvement of some personnel in the alleged coup plot.
Uba added that those implicated would be arraigned before appropriate military judicial panels.
In March, family members of the detained officers appealed to President Tinubu to ensure that the suspects were tried in an open court.
At a press conference in Abuja, wives and relatives of the detained officers also demanded access to the accused, whom they described as alleged coup masterminds.
The agitation continued in April, as families of the detained officers staged a protest at the entrance of the National Assembly, calling for a speedy trial and improved access to their relatives in custody.
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