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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga
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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.
According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.
To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.
The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.
As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.
President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.
President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.
He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.
The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.
In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.
The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.
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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.
The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.
In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.
An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.
The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.
Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.
As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.
President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.
Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.
*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu
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Opeifa Defends Rail Reforms, Unveils Nationwide Expansion Roadmap
Opeifa maintained that derailments are not peculiar to Nigeria, noting that such incidents occur across advanced rail systems globally.
“Derailments are regular occurrences in the rail sector worldwide. In February alone, there were incidents in countries like Britain and others. Around the same time we experienced one, there were multiple derailments across the world,” he said.
He disclosed that in 2025, Nigeria recorded three major derailments:
• August 26 at Asham in Kaduna State
• November 1 at Abraka on the Warri–Itakpe line
• November 8 at Agbor on the same corridor
He said the NRC responded swiftly, restoring services within 24 hours in one case, while others were resolved within 21 and 28 days respectively.
Opeifa stressed that derailments can result from factors such as weather conditions, signal glitches, human error, speeding, or aging infrastructure, but noted that in Nigeria’s recent cases, there were no fatalities.
“These incidents are preventable and efforts are ongoing to minimize them. However, they should not be seen as major setbacks to the overall progress of the railway system,” he said.
On Allegations of Mismanagement
Addressing allegations of financial mismanagement within the corporation, Opeifa declined detailed comments, citing ongoing legal processes.
“When a matter is in court, it is sub judice. Allegations of corruption or mismanagement should be handled by the appropriate authorities,” he stated.
He reiterated that his priority is to reposition the NRC in line with global best practices and ensure efficient rail services for Nigerians.
Expansion, Upgrades and National Connectivity
The NRC boss said efforts are underway to restore damaged coaches and upgrade infrastructure using local engineers and technicians.
“We are bringing back the lines and retrofitting coaches. The Warri–Itakpe line is operational. The Abuja–Kaduna line is running, and we are increasing trips from two to three,” he said.
On long-term plans, Opeifa disclosed that the NRC roadmap envisions rail connectivity across major cities nationwide, subject to funding and phased execution.
He dismissed claims of abandoned projects, explaining that rail developments are capital-intensive and implemented in phases based on available resources.
He cited progress on the Lagos–Ibadan corridor—part of the larger Lagos–Kano project—as well as ongoing work on the Kano–Maradi line linking key northern cities.
Lagos–South-East, Port Connections in View
Opeifa also highlighted plans to expand connectivity between southern ports and inland cities. These include proposed links from Warri to Abuja and from Lekki Deep Sea Port to Kajola, Benin, Onitsha, and Aba, enabling both passenger and cargo movement.
Toward Modern Signaling and Faster Trains
On modernization, he said Nigeria is gradually upgrading from older narrow-gauge systems to standard-gauge infrastructure with improved signaling technology.
He noted that metro rail projects in Kaduna, Kano, and Lagos are being developed with higher signaling standards, positioning the country for faster and more efficient train services in the coming years.
“We are not yet at the highest global level, but we are moving steadily upward,” Opeifa said.
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Ticket Reform Boosts Confidence in Lagos–Ibadan Rail Service, Says Opeifa
A quiet transformation is reshaping the daily commute between Nigeria’s commercial hub and the historic city of Ibadan. Passengers on the Lagos–Ibadan standard gauge corridor say services have become more efficient and predictable following a clampdown on ticket racketeering led by Kayode Opeifa
The renewed confidence in the rail line linking Lagos and is influencing residential and employment decisions among middle-income earners who once considered daily intercity commuting unrealistic.
“It is now possible to live in Ibadan and work in Lagos without the daily anxiety of securing a ticket,” said Adewale Bamidele, a financial analyst who travels three times a week. “Before, you needed connections. Now, you book, you board, you arrive.”
A Line Once Hindered by Middlemen
The Lagos–Ibadan railway, inaugurated as a flagship infrastructure project under the administration of former President Buhari was designed to ease pressure on the congested Lagos–Ibadan Expressway and deepen economic integration across the South-West.
However, in its early phases, passengers frequently complained of informal ticket rackets. Allegations included bulk-buying by intermediaries and artificial scarcity that forced travellers to pay inflated prices for seats on high-demand trains.
Industry observers say such practices undermined the railway’s credibility as a mass transit solution. “Transport systems thrive on predictability and fairness,” said a transport economist “Once access is perceived as compromised, commuters revert to road transport despite the risks and delays.”
Enforcement and Digitisation
Since assuming oversight responsibilities within the sector, Opeifa has reportedly intensified internal monitoring and strengthened digital ticketing protocols. Railway officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said stricter verification processes and disciplinary measures against errant staff have curtailed unauthorised ticket sales.
Although the Nigerian Railway Corporation has not released detailed enforcement data, anecdotal evidence from regular commuters points to shorter queues, smoother boarding procedures and fewer last-minute cancellations.
For professionals with flexible work schedules, the improvement has been significant. The average journey time of about two to three hours—depending on the service type—now compares favourably with unpredictable road travel, which can take considerably longer during peak traffic.
Changing Urban Dynamics
Property agents in Ibadan report a modest rise in enquiries from Lagos-based workers seeking more affordable housing. Rents in many parts of Ibadan remain significantly lower than comparable neighbourhoods in Lagos, offering relief to households grappling with inflationary pressures.
“Rail reliability changes everything,” said Funke Adebayo, a real estate consultant in Ibadan. “When people trust the timetable, they are more willing to relocate.”
Economists caution, however, that long-term success will depend on consistent maintenance, adequate security along the corridor and transparent ticketing systems. Any return to informal practices could quickly erode recent gains.
The Lagos–Ibadan corridor is widely regarded as a litmus test for Nigeria’s broader rail ambitions. With additional standard gauge projects planned or underway nationwide, policymakers face mounting pressure to ensure that infrastructure investments translate into reliable public service delivery.
For now, passengers remain cautiously optimistic.
“It feels more organised,” Bamidele said while disembarking at Mobolaji Johnson Station in Lagos. “If this standard is sustained, rail can genuinely compete with road transport.”
Nigeria agree, the real challenge lies not just in laying tracks, but in sustaining public trust.
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Breaking : Finance Ministry Shake-Up: Tinubu Nominates Oyedele, Says Onanuga
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President Bola Tinubu has nominated the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Dr. Taiwo Oyedele, as the Minister of State for Finance.
Oyedele replaces Dr. Doris Anite-Uzoka, who has been redeployed to the Ministry of Budget and National Planning as Minister of State, her third portfolio in the administration.
The President on Tuesday conveyed Oyedele’s nomination to the Senate for confirmation in a letter to the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, according to a statement by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, on Tuesday.
Until Tinubu nominated him as a minister, Oyedele from Ikaram, Akoko, Ondo State, was the chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, which overhauled Nigeria’s tax system.
The 50-year-old is an economist, accountant, and public policy expert who led the comprehensive overhaul of Nigeria’s tax system through the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms.
The committee, inaugurated in August 2023, delivered four executive bills that consolidated over 60 taxes into fewer than 10 statutes and introduced significant reforms, including zero income tax for Nigerians earning N800,000 annually or less.
The Tax Reform Acts, which became effective on January 1, 2026, also exempted small businesses with turnover below N50m from company income tax, capital gains tax, and development levy.
Other provisions include a 50 per cent tax deduction for companies hiring new workers for three years, a 50 per cent deduction for wage increases to the lowest-paid employees, and a five-year corporate tax holiday for agricultural enterprises.
Oyedele attended Yaba College of Technology, where he obtained a Higher National Diploma in Accountancy and Finance, before proceeding to Oxford Brookes University for a BSc in Applied Accounting.
He also completed executive education programmes at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School.
Oyedele spent 22 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers, joining in 2001 and rising to become the Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader before his appointment to head the tax reform committee.
He is currently a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State and a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.
As Minister of State for Finance, Oyedele is expected to oversee the implementation of the tax reforms he championed, particularly as the government seeks to improve revenue generation and deepen economic reforms.
Anite-Uzoka, who is being redeployed to the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, previously served as Minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment before her appointment as Minister of State for Finance.
The Senate is expected to screen and confirm Oyedele’s nomination in the coming weeks, following which he will be sworn in to assume his ministerial duties.
The Finance Ministry, currently led by Wale Edun as substantive minister, oversees fiscal policy, revenue mobilisation, debt management, and economic planning.
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