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Update : The many silver linings of Tinubu’s 7 months in office by Bayo Onanuga

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The removal of fuel subsidy and the move to merge foreign exchange rates, two headline reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration since late May, triggered problems such as high fuel prices and the depreciation of the Naira, two monstrosities which combined to cause a general spike in costs of services and goods.
Today, many Nigerians complain of a rise in the cost of living.

According to the latest NBS report, Nigeria’s inflation, which rose to 26.7 percent in September, again rose to 28.2% in November from 27.33% in October. Food Inflation remains untamed, rising from 31.52% in October to 32.84% in November 2023.

To compound the economic problems, a few multinational companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, Procter & Gamble have announced their exit from our country, complaining about the difficult operating environment and the scarcity of dollar.

The truth is that the new policies alone are not solely responsible for the economic problems we are facing today. We were destined for the tough and rough patch, where we are today because of the prevailing conditions before Tinubu took over on 29 May.

As at June 2023, the budget deficit was N10.8 trillion. Actual Debt service was 98.95 percent of revenue, far higher than the projected 59.37 percent. Inflow into the country’s foreign reserve came in trickles. And so bad was the state of affairs that Nigeria could not remit about $800 million fund of foreign airlines. JP Morgan exposed our near insolvency by claiming in a report that our net foreign reserve was just about $3.7 billion, not the $33 billion-plus flaunted by Emefiele’s CBN.

President Tinubu, who promised during the campaign to take hard and difficult decisions, moved to tackle the economic problems from Day One, by first dispensing with the wasteful fuel subsidy that was billed to consume about N7trillion this year, five times more than what was provisioned for capital spending.

President Tinubu is quite aware of the side effects of his move to reset our economy. Though his administration has earned plaudits from the World Bank, the IMF and rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch, he is not carried away by the praises.

He is focused on turning the economy around for growth, development and prosperity.

The moves are yielding some good effects. Amidst what some sections of the media perceive as general gloom, some silver linings are emerging, signposting that with a little more patience, our material conditions will improve and inflation will be tamed. For businesses, operating conditions will also improve.

In its third-quarter report for the year, the NBS reported that GDP grew by 2.54 percent. In a similar period in 2022, GDP recorded a growth of 2.25%. To demonstrate that the sun may be shining on us again, the 2.54% GDP growth recorded in Q3, was also higher than the 2.51% recorded in Q2.

The service sector, made up of information and communication, financial, and insurance, was responsible for the growth witnessed in Q3. It had a 3.99% growth, contributing 52.7% of the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector declined from 1.34% growth in Q2 to 1.3 percent in Q3.

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Growth was also recorded in construction and real estate, metal ores (69.76%), coal mining (58.03%), chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.77%), Cement (4.2%), and construction (3.89%). Oil reported a negative growth of 0.85%, a major improvement from the negative 22.67% recorded at the same period last year. It was -13.43 in Q2 of 2022.

The improvement in the oil sector and its contribution to GDP has been attributed to the improvement in the security of oil infrastructure and operations, leading to increased production. Going forward in this Q4 and 2024, NNPC Limited is confident that the sector will continue to climb the curve.

In the same Q3, according to NBS, the Industrial sector grew by 0.46%, an uptick compared with Q3 2022, when it had a negative 8% growth, even in the era of P&G and GSK exit.

An interesting revelation in the NBS Q3 report was the big jump in the volume of trade, from N12.16 trillion in Q2 to N18.8 trillion. Trade volume in the same period in 2022 was N12.28 trillion. We also recorded a trade surplus of N1.89 trillion in Q3, an increase from the N708.8 billion in Q2 2023. In Q3 in 2022, we recorded a trade deficit of N409.39 billion.

The value of exports in the third quarter was N10.35 trillion, far higher by 60.78 percent than the N6.44 trillion posted in Q2 2023. Crude oil dominated the export, accounting for 82.5 percent, a confirmation that our country is pumping out more oil for export, unlike the previous years.

Just as our exports increased, imports also increased, rising from N5.73 trillion in Q2 2023 to N8.46 trillion in Q3, a rise of 60.8 percent. The imports recorded in the quarter were also higher in value compared to Q3 2022, which was N6.34 trillion.

As the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu noted in a recent report, economic prosperity in our country will be achieved with the reforms being implemented, supported by strong monetary and fiscal policies, food supply management, and other intervention programmes.

President Tinubu who has never shied away from acknowledging the temporary pains triggered by the reforms, gave an assurance in a recent newspaper interview that his Administration will continue to take proactive measures to wrestle with the problems.

Many of these measures are already being taken and in the New Year, we expect the silver linings that are at present understated, to blossom into rays of sunshine to be experienced by all Nigerians.

*Onanuga is the special adviser of Information and strategy to President Bola Tinubu

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Breaking : Tinubu returns to Abuja tonight after diplomatic visits to Saint Lucia, Brazil,Says Onanuga

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is expected to arrive Abuja later tonight following a two-nation diplomatic tour that took him to Saint Lucia in the Caribbean and Brazil in South America.

His return was confirmed in a message posted on Saturday afternoon by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, on his verified X handle, @aonanuga1956.

“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu returns to Abuja today after his two-nation visit to Saint Lucia and Brazil,” the presidential aide stated.

The President departed Nigeria on Saturday, June 28 for what was described as a strategic outreach aimed at strengthening ties with regions historically under-engaged in Nigeria’s diplomatic matrix.

His first stop was Saint Lucia, where he made a historic visit to build new ties and explore emerging partnerships with Caribbean states.

While in Saint Lucia, Tinubu interacted with regional leaders under the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), reinforcing Nigeria’s growing interest in Caribbean diplomacy and South-South cooperation.

He subsequently proceeded to Brazil to participate in the 17th BRICS Summit held in Rio de Janeiro.

On the sidelines of the summit, President Tinubu held a bilateral meeting with his Brazilian counterpart, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The leaders co-chaired the Nigeria-Brazil high-level bilateral meeting , where they discussed mechanisms to boost trade, infrastructure financing, and cultural cooperation between Africa’s most populous country and Latin America’s largest economy.

With the President’s return, focus is expected to shift to domestic engagements and follow-up actions on the diplomatic and investment commitments made during his foreign tour.

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2027 Election: Group Moves To recover 10m Lost Votes In Northern States, Says Muhammad Gamawa

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A non-governmental organisation, Advocacy for Integrity and Rule of Law (Airlin) in Nigeria, has kicked off a grassroots campaign across the 19 northern states to promote civic awareness, respect for the rule of law, and voter participation ahead of the next general elections.

Speaking during the inauguration of the Yobe State chapter of the organisation on Sunday, the National Chairman, Muhammad Ibrahim Gamawa, said the initiative was designed to “re-Nigerianise Nigerians” by instilling a deep respect for national values, laws, and democratic responsibilities.

Gamawa noted that the campaign specifically targets Nigerians who refused to vote during the last election, which recorded barely 40 per cent voter turnout.

He said his team is engaging directly with this silent majority in their homes to encourage them to reclaim their civic duty.

“We are going to those who didn’t vote not just to ask them to vote, but to educate them on their rights, how to make informed decisions, and to choose leaders based on ideology, not money,” Gamawa said.

He added that Airlin has appointed state and local government coordinators in all the LGAs of Yobe State as part of its broader plan to mobilise at least 10 million voters from its membership base in the coming election.

Airlin already has functional offices in 16 northern states, strengthening its capacity to reach the grassroots and drive consistent civic engagement.

According to him, “If you refuse to vote, you’re giving the bad eggs a chance to emerge. We’re telling people: don’t stay back. Come out and close the gap left during the last elections.”

He stressed that one of the key tasks for the newly inaugurated officials is to discourage vote-buying and reject financial inducement from politicians.

“Anyone who collected N1,000 or even N1 million two years ago already knows the money is gone. What is left is the broken promise and bad leadership. We must now live by political ideology. Don’t give your vote for money give it for policy, for vision, for something that aligns with your future,” he warned.

Gamawa said Airlin doesn’t engage in partisan campaigns or political endorsements, but instead evaluates political manifestos and meets with candidates to ask direct questions about their plans for the first term.

He added, “Our duty is to look beyond the noise and see who has a workable plan. We sit with these leaders and assess what they can deliver in the first 100 days. That is how we guide our members to vote consciously.”

The group’s core message revolves around respect for the rule of law, civic responsibility, and citizen-led accountability, with Gamawa stressing that the time had come for Nigerians to stop waiting for government agencies to enforce good governance.

“Let the rule of law live in our minds, in our bodies. It’s our job as citizens to keep Nigeria together not just the job of the government,” he said.

Gamawa concluded with a strong warning against vote trading, describing it as an act of betrayal to the nation, “Collecting money from politicians for votes is the worst thing citizens can do to their country.”

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Breaking : US cuts Nigerian non-immigrant visas to three months, single entry, With immediate effect

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The United States Department of State has announced an update to its non-immigrant visa policy for Nigerians.

According to a press release issued by the US Embassy in Abuja on Tuesday, “most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to citizens of Nigeria will be single-entry visas with a three-month validity period.”

The new visa restrictions take immediate effect.

However, the embassy clarified that, “those US non-immigrant visas issued before July 8, 2025, will retain their status and validity.”

The statement emphasised that this move is part of the Department’s global visa reciprocity process, which the embassy described as “a continuous process and is subject to review and change at any time, such as increasing or decreasing permitted entries and duration of validity.”

The US explained the rationale behind the policy update, noting that “US visa criteria and standards are designed to protect the integrity of US immigration systems.”

The embassy added that “these standards are based on global technical and security benchmarks.”

According to the embassy, the US Mission is working with Nigerian authorities to meet these benchmarks.

“The US Mission is working with the Government of Nigeria to ensure that Nigeria can meet the criteria,” the statement said.

Examples of these standard criteria include “Secure Travel Documents: Ensuring countries issue secure travel documents with verified traveler identities.

“Visa Overstay Management: Implementing measures to limit overstays by travelers on US visas, and Information Sharing: Sharing relevant security and/or criminal record information to protect public safety.”

Despite the new restrictions, the embassy reaffirmed its diplomatic relationship with Nigeria.

“The United States values its longstanding relationship with Nigeria and remains committed to expanding our partnership based on mutual respect, shared security priorities, and economic opportunity, keeping both our countries safer and stronger,” the statement read.

The embassy also expressed support for ongoing Nigerian reforms, stating, “We commend the ongoing efforts by the Government of Nigeria’s immigration and security agencies to meet standards of international best practices.”

Nigerian travelers were advised to comply with visa regulations.

“Nigerian travelers are encouraged to respect and adhere to the terms of their visas, and ensure travel documents are authentic, accurate, and up to date,” it added.

The embassy concluded with a reaffirmation of its engagement with the Nigerian people and government.

“The United States remains a committed partner in deepening people-to-people ties with Nigeria via business, educational, and cultural exchanges.

“We look forward to continued cooperation at all levels with the Nigerian public and government officials to ensure safe and lawful travel between the United States and all countries,” it said

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